NYSE: FOUR · Infrastructure Software
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Shift4 Payments (FOUR) at $43.57 a share. The stock last closed at $41.49, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Shift4 Payments, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $42.89 to $43.57 (+1.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $41.49 is 5.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 21% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FOUR?
The calibrated range for FOUR over 63 trading days is $33.01 to $54.94. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that FOUR's own options imply (77% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.70 to $81.51. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers comprehensive integrated payment processing and technology solutions across the United States.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Shift4 Payments at $43.57 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, as of 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $42.89, so the fair value moved +1.6%. The model gives the reason in its own words: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.01 to $54.94. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Shift4 Payments scores 56 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, based on the model's composite of six quality factors. Earnings quality scores highest at 95, with FCF / net income at 5.70x against a peer median of 1.46x. Growth quality scores 87, with trailing revenue growth of 25.5% against a peer median of 2.4%. The balance sheet scores 9, with net debt / EBITDA at 4.61x against a peer median of 3.16x. Profitability scores 25, with ROIC at 5.2% against a peer median of 10.1%. The model compares the company with Teradata Corporation, ACI Worldwide, NetScout Systems, Payoneer Global, UiPath and Euronet Worldwide, each with a fair value of its own on the site. Box and WEX are also comparable companies, with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FOUR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Shift4 Payments's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 21.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. FOUR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FOUR's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in FOUR
How does FOUR score on business quality?
Shift4 Payments's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 5.2%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 5.70xFCF / net income | 1.46x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 87 | 25.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 15.3%Net buybacks / market value | 11.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 9 | 4.61xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.2 pts |
How does FOUR compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Shift4 Payments in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDC Teradata Corporation | $33.62 | $38.64 | +14.9% | Fairly valued |
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $58.43 | $56.41 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| BOX Box, Inc. | $43.01 | $40.49 | -5.9% | Data under review |
| NTCT NetScout Systems, Inc. | $37.93 | $42.79 | +12.8% | Fairly valued |
| WEX WEX Inc. | $181.97 | $149.96 | -17.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $7.16 | $6.20 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| PATH UiPath Inc. | $13.13 | $18.54 | +41.2% | Undervalued |
| EEFT Euronet Worldwide, Inc. | $66.24 | $82.95 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FOUR, the peer-implied price, is $48.29 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Shift4 Payments at a glance
Shift4 Payments, Inc. delivers comprehensive integrated payment processing and technology solutions across the United States.
- Market value
- $4.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +20.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 22
- Beta to the US market
- 1.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Shift4 Payments on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FOUR was $42.89. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $43.57, a change of +1.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Shift4 Payments's valuation
Is Shift4 Payments stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FOUR's fair value at $43.57 a share against a last close of $41.49, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FOUR's fair value?
$43.57 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.70 to $81.51.
What price range does the model give FOUR?
$33.01 to $54.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Shift4 Payments report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FOUR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -23.2% around the report of 26 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FOUR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FOUR
The model holds no idea open on FOUR today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FOUR with their outcomes. A free account is enough.