NASDAQ: NTCT · Infrastructure Software
NetScout Systems (NTCT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values NetScout Systems (NTCT) at $40.10 a share. The stock last closed at $40.96, which puts the model's fair value 2.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. NetScout Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
NetScout Systems, Inc. specializes in delivering comprehensive service assurance and robust cybersecurity solutions, designed to protect digital business services from potential disruptions worldwide, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $40.10 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $39.87, so the fair value moved +0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.64 to $48.89, built from the fair value since there is no live options data, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 49 out of 100. This includes a Profitability score of 61 and a Balance sheet score of 100, but an Earnings quality score of 30 and a Stability score of 0. The model compares the company with Teradata Corporation (TDC), Euronet Worldwide, Inc. (EEFT), Payoneer Global Inc. (PAYO), LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP), A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN), and ACI Worldwide, Inc. (ACIW). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median size of 5.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NTCT?
The calibrated range for NTCT over 63 trading days is $33.64 to $48.89. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $33.48 to $47.72. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NTCT score on business quality?
NetScout Systems's overall quality score is 49 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 61 | 9.8%ROIC | 5.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 30 | 2.13xFCF / net income | 2.58x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.00x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 17.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.1 pts |
How does NTCT compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to NetScout Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDC Teradata Corporation | $30.14 | $32.58 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| EEFT Euronet Worldwide, Inc. | $63.50 | $88.49 | +39.4% | Undervalued |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | $7.15 | $6.22 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
| FOUR Shift4 Payments, Inc. | $36.17 | $44.74 | +23.7% | Low evidence grade |
| RAMP LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. | $37.65 | $50.24 | +33.4% | Undervalued |
| BOX Box, Inc. | $34.49 | $28.59 | -17.1% | Data under review |
| ATEN A10 Networks, Inc. | $27.63 | $23.12 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| ACIW ACI Worldwide, Inc. | $50.15 | $51.15 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does NTCT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
NetScout Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How NTCT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -6.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | +10.1% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -2.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +5.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -0.6% |
| 8 May 2025 | +16.3% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +6.7% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -1.2% |
NetScout Systems at a glance
NetScout Systems, Inc. specializes in delivering comprehensive service assurance and robust cybersecurity solutions, designed to protect digital business services from potential disruptions worldwide, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $920M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.97
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices NetScout Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NTCT was $39.87. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $40.10, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about NetScout Systems's valuation
Is NetScout Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NTCT reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $40.10 a share against a last close of $40.96, a gap of -2.1%.
What is NTCT's fair value?
$40.10 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $33.48 to $47.72.
What price range does the model give NTCT?
$33.64 to $48.89 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does NetScout Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NTCT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.3% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NTCT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.