NYSE: TEL · Semiconductors
TE Connectivity (TEL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values TE Connectivity (TEL) at $255.31 a share. The stock last closed at $220.36, which puts the model's fair value 15.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. TE Connectivity plc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
TE Connectivity plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells connectivity and sensor solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $255.31 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +5.1% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $243.03. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $213.01 to $309.52, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 58 out of 100 against comparable companies, including NXP Semiconductors N.V., Teradyne, Inc., and Microchip Technology Incorporated. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 5.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TEL?
The calibrated range for TEL over 63 trading days is $213.01 to $309.52. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $201.12 to $317.67. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TEL score on business quality?
TE Connectivity's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 16.4%ROIC | 16.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 1.21xFCF / net income | 1.02x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 7.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 2.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 53 | 0.89xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 33 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.5 pts |
How does TEL compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to TE Connectivity in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $243.66 | $250.90 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| TER Teradyne, Inc. | $449.04 | $443.74 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
| MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $1,439.73 | $1,278.13 | -11.2% | Fairly valued |
| MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $81.32 | $103.80 | +27.6% | Undervalued |
| ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $84.89 | $119.64 | +40.9% | Undervalued |
| Q Qnity Electronics, Inc. | $131.48 | $160.34 | +22.0% | Undervalued |
| ENTG Entegris, Inc. | $166.47 | $176.62 | +6.1% | Fairly valued |
| MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $321.60 | $307.52 | -4.4% | Fairly valued |
When does TEL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
TE Connectivity's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TEL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | -4.9% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | -10.5% |
| 21 Jan 2026 | -0.8% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.9% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +13.9% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +7.5% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | +5.9% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -3.4% |
TE Connectivity at a glance
TE Connectivity plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells connectivity and sensor solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the AsiaPacific, and the Americas.
- Market value
- $63.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 1.55
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices TE Connectivity on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TEL was $243.03. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $255.31, a change of +5.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about TE Connectivity's valuation
Is TE Connectivity stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TEL reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $255.31 a share against a last close of $220.36, a gap of +15.9%.
What is TEL's fair value?
$255.31 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $201.12 to $317.67.
What price range does the model give TEL?
$213.01 to $309.52 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does TE Connectivity report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TEL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.9% around the report of 23 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TEL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.