NYSE: THC · Medical Care Facilities
Tenet Healthcare (THC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Tenet Healthcare (THC) at $375.62 a share. The stock last closed at $286.46, which puts the model's fair value 31.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Tenet Healthcare Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $360.35 to $375.62 (+4.2%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $286.46 is 31.1% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give THC?
The calibrated range for THC over 63 trading days is $251.53 to $336.09. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that THC's own options imply (44% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $255.64 to $527.62. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Tenet Healthcare Corporation operates as a broad-ranging provider of health solutions. It organizes its operations across three main divisions: Hospital Operations and Other, Ambulatory Care, and Conifer.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $375.62 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $360.35, so the fair value moved +4.2%. In the model's words, the comparable companies now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $260.13 to $337.20, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium: it reflects input completeness, comparable agreement and the spread of outcomes, not whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 65 out of 100, scored against comparable companies. Profitability stands out at 88, with ROIC of 18.1% against a peer median of 10.6%. Growth quality is 32, with trailing revenue growth of 3.1% against a peer median of 9.7%. Stability is 13, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 3.3 pts against a peer median of 0.8 pts. Comparable companies are Encompass Health, DaVita, The Ensign Group, Universal Health Services, Chemed, Hims & Hers Health, Concentra Group and Option Care Health.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does THC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tenet Healthcare's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. THC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 THC moved 9.6% in one session, against the 2.6% a day that options had priced: 3.8 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across THC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in THC
How does THC score on business quality?
Tenet Healthcare's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 18.1%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 84 | 1.15xFCF / net income | 1.11x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 32 | 3.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 60 | 8.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 76 | 1.79xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.95x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does THC compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to Tenet Healthcare in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EHC Encompass Health Corporation | $141.27 | $159.65 | +13.0% | Fairly valued |
| DVA DaVita Inc. | $194.82 | $207.11 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| ENSG The Ensign Group, Inc. | $182.39 | $170.48 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
| UHS Universal Health Services, Inc. | $198.59 | $284.60 | +43.3% | Undervalued |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | $533.77 | $563.60 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $24.06 | $28.40 | +18.0% | Undervalued |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $42.15 | $42.06 | -0.2% | Fairly valued |
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | $31.50 | $33.38 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for THC, the peer-implied price, is $706.95 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Tenet Healthcare at a glance
Tenet Healthcare Corporation operates as a broad-ranging provider of health solutions. The company organizes its operations across three main divisions: Hospital Operations and Other, Ambulatory Care, and Conifer.
- Market value
- $22.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $22.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.33
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. THC was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tenet Healthcare on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for THC was $360.35. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $375.62, a change of +4.2%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tenet Healthcare's valuation
Is Tenet Healthcare stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, THC reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $375.62 a share against a last close of $286.46, a gap of +31.1%.
What is THC's fair value?
$375.62 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $255.64 to $527.62.
What price range does the model give THC?
$251.53 to $336.09 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Tenet Healthcare report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has THC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.3% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for THC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on THC
The model holds no idea open on THC today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on THC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.