NYSE: TOL ยท Residential Construction
Toll Brothers (TOL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 21 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Toll Brothers (TOL) at $153.71 a share. The stock last closed at $135.50, which puts the model's fair value 13.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Toll Brothers, Inc.
What price range does the model give TOL?
The calibrated range for TOL over 63 trading days is $124.83 to $158.18. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TOL's own options imply (34% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $116.33 to $197.55. In 67% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TOL score on business quality?
Toll Brothers's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 44 | 10.8%ROIC | 13.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.91xFCF / net income | 0.92x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | 1.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 66 | 5.7%Net buybacks / market value | 4.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 1.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.11x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does TOL compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Toll Brothers in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVR NVR, Inc. | $6,188.95 | $6,418.66 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | $78.08 | $63.60 | -18.5% | Overvalued |
| PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $118.97 | $129.52 | +8.9% | Fairly valued |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $202.48 | $185.96 | -8.2% | Fairly valued |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $86.49 | $84.67 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $64.35 | $57.07 | -11.3% | Fairly valued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $543.39 | $517.85 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $139.25 | $135.84 | -2.4% | Fairly valued |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TOL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Toll Brothers's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 24 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TOL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.7% over one month.
How TOL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | +2.2% |
| 19 May 2026 | +7.4% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | -3.7% |
| 8 Dec 2025 | -4.3% |
| 19 Aug 2025 | +0.2% |
| 20 May 2025 | +10.4% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | -7.1% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | -5.5% |
Toll Brothers at a glance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States.
- Market value
- $12.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Toll Brothers on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TOL was $152.05. As of 21 Sep 2026 it is $153.71, a change of +1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Toll Brothers's valuation
Is Toll Brothers stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TOL reads as Fairly valued as of 21 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $153.71 a share against a last close of $135.50, a gap of +13.4%.
What is TOL's fair value?
$153.71 a share as of 21 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $116.33 to $197.55.
What price range does the model give TOL?
$124.83 to $158.18 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Toll Brothers report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TOL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.4% around the report of 20 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for TOL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.