NYSE: SKY · Residential Construction
Champion Homes (SKY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Champion Homes (SKY) at $87.30 a share. The stock last closed at $88.10, which puts the model's fair value 0.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Champion Homes, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Champion Homes, Inc. manufactures and sells prefabricated housing units throughout North America.
On 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $87.30 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $84.67, so the fair value moved +3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $73.24 to $106.45, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 74 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Champion Homes, Inc. with Meritage Homes Corporation, Installed Building Products, Inc., Cavco Industries, Inc., M/I Homes, Inc., Green Brick Partners, Inc., KB Home, and Toll Brothers, Inc. The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size, ignoring direction, of 10.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SKY?
The calibrated range for SKY over 63 trading days is $73.24 to $106.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $67.32 to $113.03. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SKY score on business quality?
Champion Homes's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 20.0%ROIC | 12.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.39xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 7.3%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 4.2%Net buybacks / market value | 6.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.13xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.13x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does SKY compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Champion Homes in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $61.86 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $193.00 | $186.89 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | $585.13 | $532.53 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $173.72 | +28.9% | Undervalued |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $66.66 | $71.20 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $38.61 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $136.61 | $158.59 | +16.1% | Undervalued |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $59.87 | $45.92 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SKY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Champion Homes's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 13.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SKY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +12.8% |
| 26 May 2026 | +4.4% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +11.3% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +9.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +2.0% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +5.6% |
| 27 May 2025 | -30.0% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +14.8% |
Champion Homes at a glance
Champion Homes, Inc. manufactures and sells prefabricated housing units throughout North America.
- Market value
- $4.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.70
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Champion Homes on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SKY was $84.67. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $87.30, a change of +3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Champion Homes's valuation
Is Champion Homes stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SKY reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $87.30 a share against a last close of $88.10, a gap of -0.9%.
What is SKY's fair value?
$87.30 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $67.32 to $113.03.
What price range does the model give SKY?
$73.24 to $106.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Champion Homes report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SKY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -30.0% around the report of 27 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SKY is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.