NASDAQ: CVCO · Residential Construction
Cavco Industries (CVCO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Cavco Industries (CVCO) at $532.53 a share. The stock last closed at $585.13, which puts the model's fair value 9.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Cavco Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) is a prominent American enterprise primarily focused on the manufacturing, marketing, and retail sale of prefabricated residential dwellings. It operates in the Consumer Cyclical, Residential Construction sector.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $532.53 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +2.8% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $517.85. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $446.78 to $649.32, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The company's overall quality score is 81 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 82, with ROIC at 18.8% compared to a peer median of 12.8%. The model compares Cavco Industries, Inc. with Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH), Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY), M/I Homes, Inc. (MHO), Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP), Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK), KB Home (KBH), and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL). The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CVCO?
The calibrated range for CVCO over 63 trading days is $446.78 to $649.32. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $429.36 to $651.43. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CVCO score on business quality?
Cavco Industries's overall quality score is 81 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 82 | 18.8%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.30xFCF / net income | 0.67x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 81 | 11.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 32 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 4.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 94 | -0.79xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 91 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does CVCO compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential construction closest to Cavco Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | $63.85 | $61.86 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| SKY Champion Homes, Inc. | $88.10 | $87.30 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $134.76 | $173.72 | +28.9% | Undervalued |
| IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $193.00 | $186.89 | -3.2% | Fairly valued |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $66.66 | $71.20 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| KBH KB Home | $45.75 | $38.61 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| CCS Century Communities, Inc. | $59.87 | $45.92 | -23.3% | Low evidence grade |
| TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $136.61 | $158.59 | +16.1% | Undervalued |
All residential construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CVCO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cavco Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CVCO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -3.2% |
| 21 May 2026 | +2.8% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -20.1% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +5.1% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +4.9% |
| 22 May 2025 | -18.1% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | +8.8% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +7.9% |
Cavco Industries at a glance
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) is a prominent American enterprise primarily focused on the manufacturing, marketing, and retail sale of prefabricated residential dwellings.
- Market value
- $4.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Residential Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cavco Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CVCO was $517.85. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $532.53, a change of +2.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cavco Industries's valuation
Is Cavco Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CVCO reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $532.53 a share against a last close of $585.13, a gap of -9.0%.
What is CVCO's fair value?
$532.53 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $429.36 to $651.43.
What price range does the model give CVCO?
$446.78 to $649.32 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Cavco Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CVCO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -20.1% around the report of 29 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CVCO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.