NYSE: TREX · Construction Materials
Trex (TREX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Trex (TREX) at $48.86 a share. The stock last closed at $56.01, which puts the model's fair value 12.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Trex Company, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $47.13 to $48.86 (+3.7%). The peer group changed: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $56.01 is 12.8% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 17% either way over the next month. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 22 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give TREX?
The calibrated range for TREX over 63 trading days is $47.06 to $69.36. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TREX's own options imply (59% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $40.22 to $58.57. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Trex Company, Inc. is a leading U.S. manufacturer and distributor of outdoor living products. Its operations are split into Trex Residential and Trex Commercial.
Faircurve's model gives Trex a fair value of $48.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations from the run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $47.13, so the fair value moved +3.7%. The model gives the reason as: "The peer group changed: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $44.19 to $58.20. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Trex scores 68 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors. Profitability scores 83, with ROIC of 13.8% against a peer median of 10.2%. Stability also scores 83, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.1 pts against a peer median of 2.1 pts. Capital discipline scores 17, with net buybacks at 3.9% of market value against a peer median of 4.3%. The model compares Trex with Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP), Griffon Corporation (GFF), Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI), Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD), Knife River Corporation (KNF) and Owens Corning (OC).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does TREX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Trex's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TREX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.9% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 TREX moved 14.3% in one session, against the 3.9% a day that options had priced: 3.7 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across TREX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in TREX
How does TREX score on business quality?
Trex's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 13.8%ROIC | 10.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 63 | 1.15xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 67 | 2.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 17 | 3.9%Net buybacks / market value | 4.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 0.90xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.97x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 83 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does TREX compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Trex in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $189.24 | $182.61 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $102.40 | $106.51 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $170.54 | $173.66 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $198.84 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $138.54 | $164.31 | +18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| KNF Knife River Corporation | $57.25 | $47.04 | -17.8% | Overvalued |
| OC Owens Corning | $124.26 | $135.05 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for TREX, the peer-implied price, is $42.41 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Trex at a glance
Trex Company, Inc. is a leading U.S. manufacturer and distributor specializing in outdoor living products for both residential and commercial applications. The company's operations are segmented into Trex Residential and Trex Commercial.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.98
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. TREX was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Trex on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for TREX was $47.13. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $48.86, a change of +3.7%. The peer group changed: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Trex's valuation
Is Trex stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TREX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $48.86 a share against a last close of $56.01, a gap of -12.8%.
What is TREX's fair value?
$48.86 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $40.22 to $58.57.
What price range does the model give TREX?
$47.06 to $69.36 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Trex report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TREX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -32.4% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TREX is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on TREX
The model has an idea open on TREX under Quality Momentum since 22 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on TREX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.