NYSE: AWI · Construction Materials
Armstrong World Industries (AWI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Armstrong World Industries (AWI) at $173.66 a share. The stock last closed at $170.54, which puts the model's fair value 1.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $168.42 to $173.66 (+3.1%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $170.54 is 1.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 9% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AWI?
The calibrated range for AWI over 63 trading days is $155.89 to $190.44. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AWI's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $141.80 to $210.83. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) is a Basic Materials company in construction materials. It specializes in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of diverse ceiling systems, primarily for the construction and renovation needs of residential and commercial properties across the United States.
On 1 Nov 2026, the model's fair value for AWI was $173.66 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $168.42, so the fair value moved +3.1%. No reason for the move is given. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $155.89 to $190.44, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026, ranges built this way held 60% of the time at this horizon. Faircurve's model grades the evidence High. The grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
AWI's overall quality score is 68 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 28.0% against a peer median of 11.0%. Growth quality scores 84, with trailing revenue growth of 12.1% against a peer median of -0.7%. Earnings quality scores 16, with FCF / net income of 0.71x against a peer median of 1.23x. The model compares AWI with Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD), Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP), Trex Company, Inc. (TREX), Owens Corning (OC), Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) and Griffon Corporation (GFF).
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does AWI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Armstrong World Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AWI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.7% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AWI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AWI
How does AWI score on business quality?
Armstrong World Industries's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 28.0%ROIC | 11.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 16 | 0.71xFCF / net income | 1.23x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 84 | 12.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 3.8%Net buybacks / market value | 2.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 71 | 0.84xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.88x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does AWI compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Armstrong World Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $198.84 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $138.54 | $164.31 | +18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $189.24 | $182.61 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $56.01 | $48.86 | -12.8% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $124.26 | $135.05 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $122.63 | $136.03 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $102.40 | $106.51 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AWI, the peer-implied price, is $185.29 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Armstrong World Industries at a glance
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) specializes in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of diverse ceiling systems, primarily catering to the construction and renovation needs of residential and commercial properties across the United States.
- Market value
- $7.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.53
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AWI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Armstrong World Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AWI was $168.42. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $173.66, a change of +3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Armstrong World Industries's valuation
Is Armstrong World Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AWI reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $173.66 a share against a last close of $170.54, a gap of +1.8%.
What is AWI's fair value?
$173.66 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $141.80 to $210.83.
What price range does the model give AWI?
$155.89 to $190.44 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Armstrong World Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AWI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.5% around the report of 29 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AWI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AWI
The model holds no idea open on AWI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AWI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.