NYSE: SSD · Construction Materials
Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) at $189.82 a share. The stock last closed at $198.84, which puts the model's fair value 4.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $185.04 to $189.82 (+2.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $198.84 is 4.5% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 8 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 9% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 16 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SSD?
The calibrated range for SSD over 63 trading days is $181.13 to $222.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SSD's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $158.50 to $225.08. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) conceptualises, engineers, produces and distributes vital components for wood and concrete construction projects, through its various divisions.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $189.82 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $185.04, so the fair value moved +2.6%. The model says the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $181.13 to $222.99. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is High. It looks at input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 58 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Balance sheet scores 100, with net debt to EBITDA of -0.17x against a peer median of 2.60x. Stability scores 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.6 pts against a peer median of 2.4 pts. Earnings quality scores 19, with FCF to net income of 0.88x against a peer median of 1.23x. The model compares the company with Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI), Owens Corning (OC), Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS), Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP), Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) and Griffon Corporation (GFF).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does SSD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Simpson Manufacturing's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SSD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.1% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 SSD moved 4.2% in one session, against the 1.7% a day that options had priced: 2.5 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SSD's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SSD
How does SSD score on business quality?
Simpson Manufacturing's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 18.2%ROIC | 13.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 19 | 0.88xFCF / net income | 1.23x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 53 | 4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 4.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does SSD compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Simpson Manufacturing in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $138.54 | $164.31 | +18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $170.54 | $173.66 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $124.26 | $135.05 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $122.63 | $136.03 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $189.24 | $182.61 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $56.01 | $48.86 | -12.8% | Fairly valued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $102.40 | $106.51 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SSD, the peer-implied price, is $180.77 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Simpson Manufacturing at a glance
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its various divisions, stands as a prominent entity specializing in the conceptualization, engineering, production, and distribution of vital components for both wood and concrete construction projects.
- Market value
- $7.9B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SSD was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Simpson Manufacturing on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SSD was $185.04. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $189.82, a change of +2.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Simpson Manufacturing's valuation
Is Simpson Manufacturing stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SSD reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $189.82 a share against a last close of $198.84, a gap of -4.5%.
What is SSD's fair value?
$189.82 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $158.50 to $225.08.
What price range does the model give SSD?
$181.13 to $222.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Simpson Manufacturing report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SSD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.8% around the report of 28 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SSD is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SSD
The model has an idea open on SSD under Earnings Momentum since 16 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SSD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.