NYSE: SSD ยท Construction Materials
Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 22 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) at $173.35 a share. The stock last closed at $173.80, which puts the model's fair value 0.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 21 Sep 2026. Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
What price range does the model give SSD?
The calibrated range for SSD over 63 trading days is $162.17 to $198.07. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SSD's own options imply (28% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $138.01 to $215.74. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SSD score on business quality?
Simpson Manufacturing's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 82 | 17.9%ROIC | 10.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.24xFCF / net income | 1.23x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | 4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 2.2%Net buybacks / market value | 5.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 88 | -0.04xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.58x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 99 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does SSD compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Simpson Manufacturing in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACA Arcosa, Inc. | $146.22 | $146.22 | 0.0% | Low model confidence |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $161.88 | $165.01 | +1.9% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $58.52 | $58.10 | -0.7% | Low model confidence |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $181.19 | $182.64 | +0.8% | Low model confidence |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $179.14 | $177.95 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $126.88 | $123.13 | -3.0% | Fairly valued |
| OC Owens Corning | $121.59 | $131.49 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $42.90 | $42.73 | -0.4% | Fairly valued |
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does SSD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Simpson Manufacturing's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 21 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 5.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 24 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SSD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.2% over one month.
How SSD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +2.3% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | +5.2% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | +5.9% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | +6.3% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | +10.8% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | +1.8% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | +2.4% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | -7.4% |
Simpson Manufacturing at a glance
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its various divisions, stands as a prominent entity specializing in the conceptualization, engineering, production, and distribution of vital components for both wood and concrete construction projects.
- Market value
- $7.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Simpson Manufacturing on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SSD was $171.05. As of 22 Sep 2026 it is $173.35, a change of +1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Simpson Manufacturing's valuation
Is Simpson Manufacturing stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SSD reads as Fairly valued as of 22 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $173.35 a share against a last close of $173.80, a gap of -0.3%.
What is SSD's fair value?
$173.35 a share as of 22 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $138.01 to $215.74.
What price range does the model give SSD?
$162.17 to $198.07 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Simpson Manufacturing report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SSD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +10.8% around the report of 28 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for SSD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.