NASDAQ: TTD · Advertising Agencies
Trade Desk (TTD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Trade Desk (TTD) at $12.02 a share. The stock last closed at $11.95, which puts the model's fair value 0.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Trade Desk, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $12.02 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $13.02, so the fair value moved -7.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $10.22 to $15.71. This range is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon in 3,330 past valuations. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score against comparable companies is 73 out of 100. Profitability scored 100 with ROIC at 20.2%, against a peer median of 5.3%. Earnings quality scored 81, with FCF / net income at 2.11x, against a peer median of 1.74x. The model compares The Trade Desk, Inc. with Omnicom Group Inc., QuinStreet, Inc., Iridium Communications Inc., Sphere Entertainment Co., Cinemark Holdings, Inc., and Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. The stock has moved around its earnings reports, with a median size move of 17.8%, ignoring direction, around the last 8 reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TTD?
The calibrated range for TTD over 63 trading days is $10.22 to $15.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TTD's own options imply (61% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $8.65 to $16.78. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TTD score on business quality?
Trade Desk's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 20.2%ROIC | 5.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 2.11xFCF / net income | 1.74x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 43 | 18.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 16.5%Net buybacks / market value | 5.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 78 | -0.86xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.58x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 42 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does TTD compare with similar companies?
The companies in advertising agencies closest to Trade Desk in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMC Omnicom Group Inc. | $74.15 | $86.07 | +16.1% | Undervalued |
| QNST QuinStreet, Inc. | $14.97 | $13.22 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $5.75 | $8.27 | +43.8% | Low evidence grade |
| IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $48.96 | $52.68 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | $128.25 | $138.58 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| NXST Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | $155.42 | $151.04 | -2.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | $36.05 | $43.71 | +21.2% | Undervalued |
| TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | $35.39 | $36.58 | +3.4% | Fairly valued |
All communication services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TTD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Trade Desk's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TTD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.5% over one month.
How TTD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 17.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -27.2% |
| 7 May 2026 | -3.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -4.0% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -9.9% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -39.5% |
| 8 May 2025 | +25.8% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -31.9% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +0.3% |
Trade Desk at a glance
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform.
- Market value
- $5.9B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Advertising Agencies
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Trade Desk on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TTD was $13.02. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $12.02, a change of -7.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Trade Desk's valuation
Is Trade Desk stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TTD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $12.02 a share against a last close of $11.95, a gap of +0.6%.
What is TTD's fair value?
$12.02 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $8.65 to $16.78.
What price range does the model give TTD?
$10.22 to $15.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Trade Desk report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TTD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 17.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -39.5% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TTD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.