NASDAQ: IRDM · Telecommunications Services
Iridium Communications (IRDM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Iridium Communications (IRDM) at $41.47 a share. The stock last closed at $43.87, which puts the model's fair value 5.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Iridium Communications Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $40.98 to $41.47 (+1.2%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $43.87 is 5.5% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 26 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give IRDM?
The calibrated range for IRDM over 63 trading days is $33.59 to $49.54. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $28.55 to $56.39. In 42% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Iridium Communications Inc. provides critical mobile voice and data communication services and products across the globe.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put the model's fair value of Iridium Communications at $41.47 a share. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $40.98, so the fair value moved +1.2%. In the model's own words, the multiple it anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $33.59 to $49.54, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 10,454 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The company's overall quality score is 65 out of 100, measured against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the strongest factor at 95, with FCF / net income at 1.70x. Stability scores 73 and profitability 69, with ROIC at 5.7% against a peer median of -5.7%. The balance sheet scores lowest at 21, with net debt / EBITDA at 4.11x. Growth quality scores 50, with trailing revenue growth of 4.9% against a peer median of 7.8%. The model compares the company with Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), which has a fair value of its own on the site, and with seven other companies that have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does IRDM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Iridium Communications's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across IRDM's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in IRDM
How does IRDM score on business quality?
Iridium Communications's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 69 | 5.7%ROIC | -5.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.70xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 50 | 4.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 21 | 4.11xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 73 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does IRDM compare with similar companies?
The companies in telecommunications services closest to Iridium Communications in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $4.75 | $4.85 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | $35.62 | $32.32 | -9.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $113.79 | $161.00 | +41.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ECHO EchoStar Corporation | $101.94 | $94.24 | -7.6% | Data under review |
| SHEN Shenandoah Telecommunications Company | $10.00 | $9.43 | -5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | $5.91 | $5.56 | -5.9% | Data under review |
| GOGO Gogo Inc. | $2.40 | $2.36 | -1.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CMCSA Comcast Corporation | $23.67 | $28.44 | +20.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for IRDM, the peer-implied price, is $246.71 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All telecommunications services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Iridium Communications at a glance
Iridium Communications Inc. provides critical mobile voice and data communication services and products across the globe.
- Market value
- $4.8B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $972M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. IRDM was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Iridium Communications on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for IRDM was $40.98. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $41.47, a change of +1.2%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Iridium Communications's valuation
Is Iridium Communications stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, IRDM reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $41.47 a share against a last close of $43.87, a gap of -5.5%.
What is IRDM's fair value?
$41.47 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $28.55 to $56.39.
What price range does the model give IRDM?
$33.59 to $49.54 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Iridium Communications report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has IRDM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.5% around the report of 12 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for IRDM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on IRDM
The model has an idea open on IRDM under Earnings Momentum since 26 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on IRDM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.