NYSE: SKYD · Broadcasting
Skydance (SKYD) fair value and price range
As of 24 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Skydance (SKYD) at $6.83 a share. The stock last closed at $7.75, which puts the model's fair value 11.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 27 Oct 2026. Skydance Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe model's first valuation of Skydance is dated 24 Oct 2026: a fair value of $6.83 a share.
What the model makes of itThe price of $7.75 is 11.9% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 19% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 31 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give SKYD?
The calibrated range for SKYD over 63 trading days is $6.34 to $9.92. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SKYD's own options imply (66% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 5,885 past valuations, refreshed 24 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.14 to $16.41. In 46% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 24 Oct 2026
Skydance Corporation (SKYD) is a next-generation global media and entertainment company that provides content creation and distribution services. It operates through its Studios, Direct-to-Consumer, and TV Media segments.
Faircurve's model valued Skydance Corporation (SKYD) at $6.83 a share on 24 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $6.34 to $9.92, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (5,885 past valuations, refreshed 24 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model's overall quality score for Skydance Corporation (SKYD) is 41 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Capital discipline scored 78 (Net buybacks / market value 1.1%, peer median 1.2%), and Balance sheet scored 70 (Net debt / EBITDA -3.37x, peer median 5.74x). Profitability scored 0 (ROIC -13.4%, peer median 5.0%). The model compares Skydance Corporation (SKYD) with Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), The New York Times Company (NYT), The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD), and Pinterest, Inc. (PINS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 24 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does SKYD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 27 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 30.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SKYD's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.0% over one month.
How does SKYD score on business quality?
Skydance's overall quality score is 41 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -13.4%ROIC | 5.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 57 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 49 | 0.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -9.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 78 | 1.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -3.37xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.74x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 46 | 4.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.8 pts |
How does SKYD compare with similar companies?
The companies in broadcasting closest to Skydance in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXST Nexstar Media Group, Inc. | $166.26 | $166.17 | -0.1% | Low evidence grade |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $384.39 | $357.83 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| MTCH Match Group, Inc. | $43.69 | $43.64 | -0.1% | Low evidence grade |
| NYT The New York Times Company | $69.81 | $68.92 | -1.3% | Fairly valued |
| TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | $12.70 | $11.92 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| PINS Pinterest, Inc. | $20.58 | $28.19 | +37.0% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $172.18 | $192.13 | +11.6% | Low evidence grade |
| ECHO EchoStar Corporation | $90.39 | $100.69 | +11.4% | Data under review |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SKYD, the peer-implied price, is $1.23 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All communication services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Skydance at a glance
Skydance Corp. is a next-generation global media and entertainment company that engages in providing content creation and distribution services. It operates through the following business segments: Studios, Direct-to-Consumer, and TV Media.
- Market value
- $8.5B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Broadcasting
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $30.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.64
- First valued by Faircurve
- 24 Oct 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Skydance on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
Questions about Skydance's valuation
Is Skydance stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SKYD's fair value at $6.83 a share against a last close of $7.75, as of 24 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SKYD's fair value?
$6.83 a share as of 24 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.14 to $16.41.
What price range does the model give SKYD?
$6.34 to $9.92 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 5,885 past valuations, refreshed 24 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SKYD is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SKYD
The model holds no idea open on SKYD today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SKYD with their outcomes. A free account is enough.