NASDAQ: NXST · Broadcasting
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Nexstar Media Group (NXST) at $170.01 a share. The stock last closed at $187.97, which puts the model's fair value 9.6% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Nexstar Media Group, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $166.17 to $170.01 (+2.3%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $187.97 is 9.6% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 25 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give NXST?
The calibrated range for NXST over 63 trading days is $167.00 to $217.38. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NXST's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.16 to $345.68. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) is a diversified U.S. media corporation focused on broadcast television and digital content.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $170.01 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $166.17, so the fair value moved +2.3%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $167.00 to $217.38. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Across 6,661 past valuations, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Nexstar scores 61 out of 100 on quality, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest at 90, with free cash flow at 3.95x net income. The balance sheet is the lowest at 14, with net debt at 7.77x EBITDA against a peer median of 6.47x. The model compares Nexstar with Skydance Corporation (SKYD), The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD), Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM), Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) and Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), each of which has its own fair value on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does NXST report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Nexstar Media Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NXST's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.5% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across NXST's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in NXST
How does NXST score on business quality?
Nexstar Media Group's overall quality score is 61 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 52 | 5.9%ROIC | 3.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 90 | 3.95xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 68 | -8.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -2.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 14 | 7.77xNet debt / EBITDA | 6.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 45 | 5.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.9 pts |
How does NXST compare with similar companies?
The companies in broadcasting closest to Nexstar Media Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SKYD Skydance Corporation | $8.15 | $11.08 | +36.0% | Undervalued |
| LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $3.98 | $4.85 | +21.9% | Low evidence grade |
| TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | $12.81 | $11.37 | -11.2% | Fairly valued |
| IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $42.02 | $41.47 | -1.3% | Fairly valued |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | $40.04 | $47.19 | +17.9% | Low evidence grade |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | $112.33 | $116.89 | +4.1% | Fairly valued |
| TDS Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. | $32.36 | $33.90 | +4.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $314.84 | $353.90 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for NXST, the peer-implied price, is $184.95 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All communication services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Nexstar Media Group at a glance
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. is a diversified U.S. media corporation focused on broadcast television and digital content.
- Market value
- $5.3B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Broadcasting
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +57.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Nexstar Media Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for NXST was $166.17. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $170.01, a change of +2.3%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Nexstar Media Group's valuation
Is Nexstar Media Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts NXST's fair value at $170.01 a share against a last close of $187.97, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is NXST's fair value?
$170.01 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.16 to $345.68.
What price range does the model give NXST?
$167.00 to $217.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Nexstar Media Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 25 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NXST moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.6% around the report of 27 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NXST is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on NXST
The model holds no idea open on NXST today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on NXST with their outcomes. A free account is enough.