NYSE: TXT · Aerospace & Defense
Textron (TXT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Textron (TXT) at $112.09 a share. The stock last closed at $77.26, which puts the model's fair value 45.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Textron Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Textron Inc. is a diverse global enterprise with significant involvement in the aerospace, defense, industrial, and financial sectors.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $112.09 a share for Textron Inc. on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.7% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $116.42. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $94.04 to $136.67, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 50 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Capital discipline at 83, Stability at 89, Growth quality at 55, Balance sheet at 46, Earnings quality at 38, and Profitability at 33. The model compares Textron Inc. with BWX Technologies, Inc., Moog Inc., Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., Woodward, Inc., Curtiss-Wright Corporation, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., and AeroVironment, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size of 5.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TXT?
The calibrated range for TXT over 63 trading days is $94.04 to $136.67. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $91.21 to $135.59. In 95% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TXT score on business quality?
Textron's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 10.0%ROIC | 14.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 38 | 0.81xFCF / net income | 0.90x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | 8.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 5.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 46 | 1.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.03x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 89 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does TXT compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Textron in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $134.86 | $142.94 | +6.0% | Fairly valued |
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $392.73 | $367.81 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $268.54 | $294.36 | +9.6% | Fairly valued |
| WWD Woodward, Inc. | $331.62 | $311.31 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $545.64 | $569.22 | +4.3% | Fairly valued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $43.07 | $40.49 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $140.82 | $151.63 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $21.05 | $34.72 | +64.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does TXT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Textron's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TXT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -10.9% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +5.5% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -6.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -1.6% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | -8.8% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +3.3% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -3.7% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -5.2% |
Textron at a glance
Textron Inc. (TXT) is a diverse global enterprise with significant involvement in the aerospace, defense, industrial, and financial sectors.
- Market value
- $13.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $16.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.65
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Textron on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TXT was $116.42. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $112.09, a change of -3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Textron's valuation
Is Textron stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TXT reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $112.09 a share against a last close of $77.26, a gap of +45.1%.
What is TXT's fair value?
$112.09 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $91.21 to $135.59.
What price range does the model give TXT?
$94.04 to $136.67 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Textron report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TXT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.9% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TXT is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.