NYSE: MOG-A · Aerospace & Defense
Moog (MOG-A) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Moog (MOG-A) at $346.60 a share. The stock last closed at $361.40, which puts the model's fair value 4.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Moog Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $330.89 to $346.60 (+4.7%). The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $361.40 is 4.1% above it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 20 Nov 2026. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MOG-A?
The calibrated range for MOG-A over 63 trading days is $280.76 to $414.01. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $281.97 to $421.09. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Moog Inc. develops, manufactures and integrates high-precision motion and fluid control systems for original equipment manufacturers and end-users across aerospace, defence and industrial markets.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $346.60 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $330.89, so the fair value moved +4.7%. The model says: "The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $280.76 to $414.01, built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade covers input completeness, comparable count and agreement, and range width, but not whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives Moog Inc. an overall quality score of 54 out of 100 against comparable companies. Stability stands out at 92, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.4 points against a peer median of 1.2 points. Profitability scores 74, with ROIC of 13.3% against a peer median of 8.4%. Earnings quality scores 8, with FCF / net income of 0.65x against a peer median of 1.05x. The model compares the company with BWX Technologies, Huntington Ingalls, Textron, StandardAero, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Curtiss-Wright, Woodward and AeroVironment.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MOG-A report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Moog's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MOG-A's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.6%.
How does MOG-A score on business quality?
Moog's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 13.3%ROIC | 8.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 8 | 0.65xFCF / net income | 1.05x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 47 | 7.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 62 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 55 | 1.74xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 92 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does MOG-A compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Moog in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $131.82 | $133.50 | +1.3% | Fairly valued |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $316.93 | $354.08 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| TXT Textron Inc. | $87.75 | $109.26 | +24.5% | Undervalued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $25.23 | $35.63 | +41.2% | Undervalued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $40.99 | $37.85 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $497.76 | $495.22 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| WWD Woodward, Inc. | $332.69 | $286.93 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $123.53 | $132.46 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MOG-A, the peer-implied price, is $342.63 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Moog at a glance
Moog Inc. specializes in the development, manufacture, and integration of high-precision motion and fluid control systems. The company serves original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users across global aerospace, defense, and industrial markets.
- Market value
- $11.1B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +14.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MOG-A was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Moog on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MOG-A was $330.89. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $346.60, a change of +4.7%. The companies the model compares it with now trade on higher multiples: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Moog's valuation
Is Moog stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MOG-A reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $346.60 a share against a last close of $361.40, a gap of -4.1%.
What is MOG-A's fair value?
$346.60 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $281.97 to $421.09.
What price range does the model give MOG-A?
$280.76 to $414.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Moog report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MOG-A moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.6% around the report of 24 Jan 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MOG-A is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MOG-A
The model holds no idea open on MOG-A today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MOG-A with their outcomes. A free account is enough.