NYSE: SARO · Aerospace & Defense
StandardAero (SARO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values StandardAero (SARO) at $35.63 a share. The stock last closed at $25.23, which puts the model's fair value 41.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. StandardAero, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $33.39 to $35.63 (+6.7%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $25.23 is 41.2% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 9 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 16% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SARO?
The calibrated range for SARO over 63 trading days is $28.86 to $42.56. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 23% of the time over 63 trading days, and 76% ended below it; the typical move was +0.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $27.59 to $44.98. In 92% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
StandardAero, Inc. is an Industrials company based in Scottsdale, Arizona, founded in 1911. It offers post-sale support for aircraft engines.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $35.63 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $33.39, so the fair value moved +6.7%. The model says the multiple it anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $28.86 to $42.56. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
StandardAero scores 65 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Stability scores 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.4 pts against a peer median of 1.5 pts. Capital discipline scores 96, with net buybacks at 1.3% of market value against a peer median of 0.1%. Balance sheet scores 31, with net debt to EBITDA of 3.02x against a peer median of 2.74x. The model compares the company with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Hexcel Corporation (HXL), Moog Inc. (MOG-A), Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM), BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) and Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SARO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
StandardAero's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 15.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
Around its last 7 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SARO's last 7 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
How does SARO score on business quality?
StandardAero's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 8.8%ROIC | 6.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 47 | 0.67xFCF / net income | 0.50x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | 15.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 96 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 31 | 3.02xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.74x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does SARO compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to StandardAero in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $40.99 | $37.85 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $123.53 | $132.46 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| HXL Hexcel Corporation | $81.83 | $84.98 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $361.40 | $346.60 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc. | $22.38 | $27.66 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $131.82 | $133.50 | +1.3% | Fairly valued |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $316.93 | $354.08 | +11.7% | Fairly valued |
| MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $80.32 | $72.06 | -10.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SARO, the peer-implied price, is $58.08 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
StandardAero at a glance
StandardAero, Inc., founded in 1911 and based in Scottsdale, Arizona, offers specialized post-sale support for aircraft engines.
- Market value
- $7.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.12
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. SARO was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices StandardAero on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SARO was $33.39. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $35.63, a change of +6.7%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about StandardAero's valuation
Is StandardAero stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SARO reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $35.63 a share against a last close of $25.23, a gap of +41.2%.
What is SARO's fair value?
$35.63 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $27.59 to $44.98.
What price range does the model give SARO?
$28.86 to $42.56 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does StandardAero report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SARO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 7 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.6% around the report of 13 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SARO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SARO
The model holds no idea open on SARO today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SARO with their outcomes. A free account is enough.