NASDAQ: VRRM ยท Information Technology Services
Verra Mobility (VRRM) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Verra Mobility (VRRM) at $5.32 a share. The stock last closed at $2.81, which puts the model's fair value 89.3% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Verra Mobility Corporation.
What price range does the model give VRRM?
The calibrated range for VRRM over 63 trading days is $4.46 to $6.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.35 to $9.15. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VRRM score on business quality?
Verra Mobility's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 35 | 7.1%ROIC | 15.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 2.18xFCF / net income | 2.42x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 41 | 11.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 37.6%Net buybacks / market value | 8.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 3.77xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.66x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 48 | 3.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.4 pts |
How does VRRM compare with similar companies?
The companies in information technology services closest to Verra Mobility in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDYN Grid Dynamics Holdings, Inc. | $8.02 | $7.59 | -5.4% | Low evidence grade |
| NABL N-able, Inc. | $4.23 | $4.83 | +14.2% | Fairly valued |
| CNXC Concentrix Corporation | $24.91 | $36.40 | +46.1% | Undervalued |
| DXC DXC Technology Company | $11.10 | $17.24 | +55.3% | Low evidence grade |
| KD Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. | $11.56 | $17.53 | +51.6% | Low evidence grade |
| PSN Parsons Corporation | $40.79 | $51.77 | +26.9% | Undervalued |
| NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | $160.66 | $149.44 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| EXLS ExlService Holdings, Inc. | $35.75 | $34.81 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
All information technology services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does VRRM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Verra Mobility's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How VRRM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -8.2% |
| 6 May 2026 | +0.9% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -12.9% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -2.1% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -4.3% |
| 7 May 2025 | +7.5% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -11.7% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | -12.2% |
Verra Mobility at a glance
Verra Mobility Corporation is a company dedicated to delivering innovative smart mobility technology solutions and associated services across the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe.
- Market value
- $492M
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $940M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Verra Mobility on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VRRM was $5.56. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $5.32, a change of -4.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Verra Mobility's valuation
Is Verra Mobility stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts VRRM's fair value at $5.32 a share against a last close of $2.81, as of 26 Sep 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is VRRM's fair value?
$5.32 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.35 to $9.15.
What price range does the model give VRRM?
$4.46 to $6.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Verra Mobility report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VRRM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.9% around the report of 24 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VRRM is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.