NASDAQ: WMG · Entertainment
Warner Music Group (WMG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Warner Music Group (WMG) at $36.15 a share. The stock last closed at $31.92, which puts the model's fair value 13.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Warner Music Group Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $36.15, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $31.92 is 13.3% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 19 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 9% either way. On the model's Quality at a Discount list since 23 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WMG?
The calibrated range for WMG over 63 trading days is $28.47 to $36.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WMG's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.87 to $48.80. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) was established in 1929 and is based in New York City. It is a prominent global entertainment enterprise primarily focused on music.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $36.15 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $36.42, a move of -0.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $29.45 to $36.82. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Across 6,661 past valuations, ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade covers input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 65 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Stability stands out at 96, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.0 pts against a peer median of 5.5 pts. Profitability scores 74, with ROIC of 14.8% against a peer median of 5.9%. The balance sheet scores 35, with net debt to EBITDA of 2.97x against a peer median of -0.86x. The model compares the company with Fox Corporation (FOX), Fox Corporation (FOXA), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) and Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does WMG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Warner Music Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WMG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.1% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 WMG moved 4.6% in one session, against the 2.3% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WMG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in WMG
How does WMG score on business quality?
Warner Music Group's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 14.8%ROIC | 5.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 73 | 1.21xFCF / net income | 1.30x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 47 | 4.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 58 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 35 | 2.97xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.86x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 96 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.5 pts |
How does WMG compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Warner Music Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $189.14 | $229.43 | +21.3% | Low evidence grade |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $59.99 | $67.41 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $67.67 | $74.62 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $314.84 | $353.90 | +12.4% | Fairly valued |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $181.25 | $207.08 | +14.3% | Data under review |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | $40.04 | $47.19 | +17.9% | Low evidence grade |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | $112.33 | $116.89 | +4.1% | Fairly valued |
| DIS The Walt Disney Company | $117.22 | $113.14 | -3.5% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for WMG, the peer-implied price, is $92.46 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Warner Music Group at a glance
Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG), established in 1929 and based in New York City, functions as a prominent global entertainment enterprise primarily focused on music.
- Market value
- $16.0B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,060 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WMG was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Warner Music Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WMG was $36.42. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $36.15, a change of -0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Warner Music Group's valuation
Is Warner Music Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WMG reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $36.15 a share against a last close of $31.92, a gap of +13.3%.
What is WMG's fair value?
$36.15 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.87 to $48.80.
What price range does the model give WMG?
$28.47 to $36.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Warner Music Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WMG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.9% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WMG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WMG
The model has an idea open on WMG under Quality at a Discount since 23 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WMG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.