NYSE: MSGS · Entertainment
Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) at $353.90 a share. No recent price is on file for MSGS; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. That close was $312.90; no gap to it and no verdict are shown until a new price is on file.
Revalued . Price is the close of 30 Oct 2026. Madison Square Garden Sports Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $357.83 to $353.90 (-1.1%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itNo recent price is on file for MSGS; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. The fair value of $353.90 a share, on a medium evidence grade, stands; no verdict is shown without a current price.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 27% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MSGS?
The calibrated range for MSGS over 63 trading days is $236.46 to $441.43. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MSGS's own options imply (94% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $269.99 to $450.87. In 39% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. operates as a professional sports company in the United States.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value of Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. at $353.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $357.83, so the fair value moved -1.1%. In the model's own words, the multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $245.78 to $420.95. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium, which looks at input completeness, comparable agreement and outcome spread, and does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model scores the business at 53 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. Earnings quality scores 88, with FCF / net income at 7.45x. Balance sheet scores 3, with net debt / EBITDA at 23.18x. Growth quality scores 42, with trailing revenue growth of 11.0% against a peer median of 12.3%. Profitability scores 44, with ROIC at 2.6% against a peer median of -2.7%. The model compares the company with Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG), Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR), Fox Corporation (FOX), Fox Corporation (FOXA) and Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV), each with a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MSGS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 26.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MSGS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 27.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MSGS's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MSGS
How does MSGS score on business quality?
Madison Square Garden Sports's overall quality score is 53 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 44 | 2.6%ROIC | -2.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | 7.45xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 42 | 11.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 3 | 23.18xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 60 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.9 pts |
How does MSGS compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Madison Square Garden Sports in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $187.20 | $208.69 | +11.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $31.13 | $36.15 | +16.1% | Undervalued |
| CNK Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | $38.51 | $47.19 | +22.5% | Low evidence grade |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | $105.05 | $116.89 | +11.3% | Fairly valued |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $59.63 | $65.15 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $67.10 | $71.87 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $178.87 | $208.71 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| DIS The Walt Disney Company | $114.24 | $113.14 | -1.0% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MSGS, the peer-implied price, is $130.77 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Madison Square Garden Sports at a glance
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. operates as a professional sports company in the United States.
- Market value
- $9.3B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Madison Square Garden Sports on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MSGS was $357.83. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $353.90, a change of -1.1%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Madison Square Garden Sports's valuation
Is Madison Square Garden Sports stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MSGS's fair value at $353.90 a share as of 31 Oct 2026. No recent price is on file for MSGS; the valuation is shown at its last recorded close of 30 Oct 2026. No verdict is shown without a current price.
What is MSGS's fair value?
$353.90 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $269.99 to $450.87.
What price range does the model give MSGS?
$236.46 to $441.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has MSGS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.0% around the report of 12 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MSGS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.