NYSE: LYV · Entertainment
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) at $197.01 a share. The stock last closed at $168.77, which puts the model's fair value 16.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., incorporated in 2005, is a global leader in live entertainment, headquartered in Beverly Hills, California. It was formerly known as Live Nation, Inc. until January 2010.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $197.01 a share for Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $199.44, so the fair value moved -1.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $154.74 to $194.85, built around the price from the stock's own options and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. scores 74 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability is 86, earnings quality is 100, and growth quality is 59, with capital discipline at 44, balance sheet at 52, and stability at 68. The model compares it with Fox Corporation (FOXA), Fox Corporation (FOX), Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), and The Walt Disney Company (DIS). The stock's moves around its last eight earnings reports ranged from -10.0% to +6.5%, with a median size of 4.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LYV?
The calibrated range for LYV over 63 trading days is $154.74 to $194.85. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that LYV's own options imply (33% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $125.15 to $293.95. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LYV score on business quality?
Live Nation Entertainment's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 14.6%ROIC | -0.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 10.21xFCF / net income | 5.72x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 8.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 52 | 1.29xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.08x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 68 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does LYV compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Live Nation Entertainment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $62.28 | $63.79 | +2.4% | Fairly valued |
| FOX Fox Corporation | $55.89 | $58.68 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $30.94 | $27.70 | -10.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $26.82 | $31.80 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $175.58 | $203.77 | +16.1% | Low evidence grade |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $9.50 | $8.38 | -11.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $406.95 | $374.84 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| DIS The Walt Disney Company | $102.19 | $132.60 | +29.8% | Undervalued |
When does LYV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Live Nation Entertainment's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. LYV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.5% over one month.
How LYV moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -5.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | +6.5% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +4.4% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -10.0% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +2.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | +1.0% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -2.8% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +5.4% |
Live Nation Entertainment at a glance
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., incorporated in 2005 and formerly known as Live Nation, Inc. until its name change in January 2010, is a global leader in live entertainment, headquartered in Beverly Hills, California.
- Market value
- $39.3B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $30.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.49
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Live Nation Entertainment on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LYV was $199.44. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $197.01, a change of -1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Live Nation Entertainment's valuation
Is Live Nation Entertainment stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, LYV reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $197.01 a share against a last close of $168.77, a gap of +16.7%.
What is LYV's fair value?
$197.01 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $125.15 to $293.95.
What price range does the model give LYV?
$154.74 to $194.85 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Live Nation Entertainment report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LYV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -10.0% around the report of 4 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LYV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.