NASDAQ: FOX · Entertainment
Fox (FOX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Fox (FOX) at $59.40 a share. The stock last closed at $55.89, which puts the model's fair value 6.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Fox Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Fox Corporation is a prominent media conglomerate primarily focused on news, sports, and entertainment operations within the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $59.40 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.9% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $60.55. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $49.84 to $72.43, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time. The evidence grade for this valuation was Medium.
The overall quality score for Fox Corporation was 76 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Fox Corporation (FOXA), Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV), Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG), Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS), and Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median of 5.7% from the close before to the close after each report.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FOX?
The calibrated range for FOX over 63 trading days is $49.84 to $72.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $43.01 to $80.29. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FOX score on business quality?
Fox's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 20.9%ROIC | 4.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 55 | 0.87xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 56 | 5.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 89 | 8.1%Net buybacks / market value | 1.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 59 | 1.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.99x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 90 | 1.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.8 pts |
How does FOX compare with similar companies?
The companies in entertainment closest to Fox in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOXA Fox Corporation | $62.28 | $64.66 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $168.77 | $197.01 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| WMG Warner Music Group Corp. | $26.82 | $32.17 | +19.9% | Undervalued |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $175.58 | $212.73 | +21.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PSKY Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $9.50 | $8.80 | -7.4% | Low evidence grade |
| MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $406.95 | $371.02 | -8.8% | Fairly valued |
| WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $30.94 | $27.62 | -10.7% | Low evidence grade |
| SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co. | $128.25 | $138.58 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
When does FOX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Fox's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FOX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +9.3% |
| 11 May 2026 | +5.1% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | -6.4% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +7.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -4.8% |
| 12 May 2025 | +9.3% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +4.2% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +4.6% |
Fox at a glance
Fox Corporation is a prominent media conglomerate primarily focused on news, sports, and entertainment operations within the United States.
- Market value
- $24.8B
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Fox on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FOX was $60.55. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $59.40, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Fox's valuation
Is Fox stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FOX reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $59.40 a share against a last close of $55.89, a gap of +6.3%.
What is FOX's fair value?
$59.40 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $43.01 to $80.29.
What price range does the model give FOX?
$49.84 to $72.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Fox report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FOX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.3% around the report of 12 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FOX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.