NYSE: XOM · Oil & Gas Integrated
Exxon Mobil (XOM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Exxon Mobil (XOM) at $161.34 a share. The stock last closed at $164.01, which puts the model's fair value 1.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $161.34 a share on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $160.69, so the fair value moved +0.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $152.35 to $186.57. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The business scores 70 out of 100 for overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 88, its earnings quality score is 32, and its growth quality score is 72. Its capital discipline score is 56, its balance sheet score is 100, and its stability score is 75. The model compares it with Chevron Corporation (CVX), National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB), and Slb N.V. (SLB). The median move around the last 8 earnings reports was 1.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give XOM?
The calibrated range for XOM over 63 trading days is $152.35 to $186.57. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that XOM's own options imply (29% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $127.35 to $201.76. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does XOM score on business quality?
Exxon Mobil's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 9.7%ROIC | 7.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 32 | 0.93xFCF / net income | 1.26x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 72 | -4.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | 0.44xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.01x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does XOM compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas integrated closest to Exxon Mobil in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX Chevron Corporation | $206.77 | $215.10 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| NFG National Fuel Gas Company | $76.43 | $82.14 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| COP ConocoPhillips | $126.75 | $156.65 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation | $422.33 | $465.47 | +10.2% | Fairly valued |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | $406.30 | $465.30 | +14.5% | Fairly valued |
| PSX Phillips 66 | $264.58 | $245.90 | -7.1% | Fairly valued |
| WMB The Williams Companies, Inc. | $70.54 | $54.66 | -22.5% | Overvalued |
| SLB Slb N.V. | $48.74 | $51.53 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
When does XOM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Exxon Mobil's next earnings report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. XOM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.2% over one month.
How XOM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 1.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | -1.2% |
| 1 May 2026 | -1.0% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | -1.5% |
| 31 Oct 2025 | -0.8% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | -3.8% |
| 2 May 2025 | -2.4% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -2.3% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +1.6% |
Exxon Mobil at a glance
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories.
- Market value
- $665.4B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $402.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +26.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.35
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Exxon Mobil on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for XOM was $160.69. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $161.34, a change of +0.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Exxon Mobil's valuation
Is Exxon Mobil stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, XOM reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $161.34 a share against a last close of $164.01, a gap of -1.6%.
What is XOM's fair value?
$161.34 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $127.35 to $201.76.
What price range does the model give XOM?
$152.35 to $186.57 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Exxon Mobil report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 30 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has XOM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 1.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -3.8% around the report of 1 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for XOM is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.