NYSE: AEO · Apparel Retail
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) at $18.88 a share. The stock last closed at $17.71, which puts the model's fair value 6.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $18.88 a share on 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $17.40, a move of +8.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $15.75 to $21.74, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 43 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with The Buckle, Inc., Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Urban Outfitters, Inc., Carter's Inc., The Gap, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc., and Burlington Stores, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AEO?
The calibrated range for AEO over 63 trading days is $15.75 to $21.74. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AEO's own options imply (45% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.93 to $27.63. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AEO score on business quality?
American Eagle Outfitters's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 43 | 11.3%ROIC | 11.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 8 | 0.50xFCF / net income | 0.98x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 52 | 3.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 81 | 3.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 2.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.18x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 62 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.1 pts |
How does AEO compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel retail closest to American Eagle Outfitters in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKE The Buckle, Inc. | $42.90 | $48.27 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $121.88 | $122.69 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | $135.91 | $162.34 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | $80.80 | $81.39 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| CRI Carter's Inc. | $31.59 | $36.90 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| GAP The Gap, Inc. | $22.51 | $24.63 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $94.46 | $118.16 | +25.1% | Undervalued |
| BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $275.34 | $255.30 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
When does AEO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
American Eagle Outfitters's next earnings report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AEO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.1% over one month.
How AEO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | -15.6% |
| 28 May 2026 | -10.0% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | -13.1% |
| 2 Dec 2025 | +12.8% |
| 3 Sep 2025 | +39.1% |
| 29 May 2025 | -13.5% |
| 12 Mar 2025 | -4.4% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | -11.6% |
American Eagle Outfitters at a glance
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items.
- Market value
- $2.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices American Eagle Outfitters on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AEO was $17.40. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $18.88, a change of +8.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about American Eagle Outfitters's valuation
Is American Eagle Outfitters stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AEO reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $18.88 a share against a last close of $17.71, a gap of +6.6%.
What is AEO's fair value?
$18.88 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.93 to $27.63.
What price range does the model give AEO?
$15.75 to $21.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does American Eagle Outfitters report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 1 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AEO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +39.1% around the report of 3 Sep 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AEO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.