NYSE: GAP · Apparel Retail
Gap (GAP) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Gap (GAP) at $24.63 a share. The stock last closed at $22.51, which puts the model's fair value 9.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. The Gap, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
The Gap, Inc. operates as a prominent apparel retail enterprise, offering a diverse array of clothing, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $24.63 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.2% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $24.67. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $20.15 to $27.31, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 50 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Urban Outfitters, Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Lululemon Athletica Inc., Burlington Stores, Inc., Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., The Buckle, Inc., and Carter's Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +11.0% on 27 Aug 2026, -12.1% on 28 May 2026, -16.1% on 5 Mar 2026, +6.3% on 20 Nov 2025, -1.3% on 28 Aug 2025, +5.2% on 29 May 2025, +16.7% on 6 Mar 2025, and +20.6% on 21 Nov 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give GAP?
The calibrated range for GAP over 63 trading days is $20.15 to $27.31. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GAP's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $14.48 to $38.48. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does GAP score on business quality?
Gap's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 78 | 16.3%ROIC | 11.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 56 | 0.89xFCF / net income | 0.97x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 19 | 1.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 45 | 7.3%Net buybacks / market value | 2.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 2.03xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.74x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 18 | 2.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does GAP compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel retail closest to Gap in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | $80.80 | $81.39 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | $135.91 | $162.34 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $94.46 | $118.16 | +25.1% | Undervalued |
| BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $275.34 | $255.30 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
| BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $121.88 | $122.69 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | $17.71 | $18.88 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
| BKE The Buckle, Inc. | $42.90 | $48.27 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| CRI Carter's Inc. | $31.59 | $36.90 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
When does GAP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Gap's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GAP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.4% over one month.
On 28 Sep 2026 GAP moved 5.2% in one session, against the 2.4% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size.
How GAP moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | +11.0% |
| 28 May 2026 | -12.1% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | -16.1% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | +6.3% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | -1.3% |
| 29 May 2025 | +5.2% |
| 6 Mar 2025 | +16.7% |
| 21 Nov 2024 | +20.6% |
Gap at a glance
The Gap, Inc. operates as a prominent apparel retail enterprise, offering a diverse array of clothing, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children.
- Market value
- $7.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $15.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Gap on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for GAP was $24.67. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $24.63, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Gap's valuation
Is Gap stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GAP reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $24.63 a share against a last close of $22.51, a gap of +9.4%.
What is GAP's fair value?
$24.63 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $14.48 to $38.48.
What price range does the model give GAP?
$20.15 to $27.31 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Gap report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GAP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.6% around the report of 21 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GAP is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.