NYSE: CRI · Apparel Retail
Carter's (CRI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Carter's (CRI) at $36.90 a share. The stock last closed at $31.59, which puts the model's fair value 16.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Carter's Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Carter's, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, and markets branded childrenswear in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International.
Faircurve's model on 27 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $36.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $35.06, so the fair value moved +5.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $30.96 to $44.99, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model found an overall quality score of 64 out of 100 against comparable companies. These comparable companies include The Buckle, Inc., American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Urban Outfitters, Inc., The Gap, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc., and Burlington Stores, Inc. Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved +5.6% on 31 Jul 2026, +7.2% on 6 May 2026, and -16.9% on 27 Feb 2026.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CRI?
The calibrated range for CRI over 63 trading days is $30.96 to $44.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $23.00 to $54.99. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CRI score on business quality?
Carter's's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 13.9%ROIC | 7.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 69 | 1.50xFCF / net income | 1.22x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 61 | 1.9%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 25 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 3.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 36 | 1.59xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.12x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.6 pts |
How does CRI compare with similar companies?
The companies in apparel retail closest to Carter's in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKE The Buckle, Inc. | $42.90 | $48.27 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| AEO American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | $17.71 | $18.88 | +6.6% | Fairly valued |
| BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $121.88 | $122.69 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | $135.91 | $162.34 | +19.4% | Undervalued |
| URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | $80.80 | $81.39 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| GAP The Gap, Inc. | $22.51 | $24.63 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| LULU Lululemon Athletica Inc. | $94.46 | $118.16 | +25.1% | Undervalued |
| BURL Burlington Stores, Inc. | $275.34 | $255.30 | -7.3% | Fairly valued |
When does CRI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carter's's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CRI moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | +5.6% |
| 6 May 2026 | +7.2% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | -16.9% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | -2.6% |
| 25 Jul 2025 | -19.0% |
| 25 Apr 2025 | -21.0% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -18.7% |
| 25 Oct 2024 | -14.2% |
Carter's at a glance
Carter's, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, sources, and markets branded childrenswear in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Wholesale, and International.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.98
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carter's on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CRI was $35.06. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $36.90, a change of +5.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carter's's valuation
Is Carter's stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CRI reads as Undervalued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $36.90 a share against a last close of $31.59, a gap of +16.8%.
What is CRI's fair value?
$36.90 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $23.00 to $54.99.
What price range does the model give CRI?
$30.96 to $44.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Carter's report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CRI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.0% around the report of 25 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CRI is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.