NYSE: AMR · Coal
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) at $180.20 a share. The stock last closed at $171.54, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $180.20 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $180.58, so the fair value moved -0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $151.18 to $219.72, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 46 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR), Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC), Dorian LPG Ltd. (LPG), Innovex International, Inc. (INVX), and SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AMR?
The calibrated range for AMR over 63 trading days is $151.18 to $219.72. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $119.98 to $271.49. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AMR score on business quality?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources's overall quality score is 46 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 13 | -2.4%ROIC | 3.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 88 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 20 | -28.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -4.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 82 | 3.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.71xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.86x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 8.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.1 pts |
How does AMR compare with similar companies?
The companies in coal closest to Alpha Metallurgical Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTU Peabody Energy Corporation | $24.81 | $28.01 | +12.9% | Fairly valued |
| CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | $88.96 | $88.41 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | $89.35 | $84.06 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| LPG Dorian LPG Ltd. | $57.21 | $58.52 | +2.3% | Fairly valued |
| INVX Innovex International, Inc. | $27.31 | $24.78 | -9.3% | Fairly valued |
| SEDG SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. | $33.09 | $29.97 | -9.4% | Fairly valued |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | $23.83 | $34.53 | +44.9% | Low evidence grade |
| RUN Sunrun Inc. | $7.71 | $18.02 | +133.7% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does AMR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AMR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | +1.1% |
| 8 May 2026 | -3.1% |
| 27 Feb 2026 | -1.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -2.7% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | +20.6% |
| 9 May 2025 | -14.5% |
| 28 Feb 2025 | -11.4% |
| 1 Nov 2024 | +2.4% |
Alpha Metallurgical Resources at a glance
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products.
- Market value
- $2.2B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Coal
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Alpha Metallurgical Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AMR was $180.58. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $180.20, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Alpha Metallurgical Resources's valuation
Is Alpha Metallurgical Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMR reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $180.20 a share against a last close of $171.54, a gap of +5.0%.
What is AMR's fair value?
$180.20 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $119.98 to $271.49.
What price range does the model give AMR?
$151.18 to $219.72 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Alpha Metallurgical Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.6% around the report of 8 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.