NYSE: CNR · Coal
Core Natural Resources (CNR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Core Natural Resources (CNR) at $87.87 a share. The stock last closed at $88.96, which puts the model's fair value 1.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Core Natural Resources, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Core Natural Resources, Inc. specializes in the global production and sale of bituminous coal and its business is primarily organized into two key segments. The company rebranded from CONSOL Energy Inc. in January 2025.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $87.87 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -0.6% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $88.41. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $73.31 to $106.53, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 50 out of 100, which is a score against comparable companies. The model compares it with Warrior Met Coal, Inc., Peabody Energy Corporation, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., Enphase Energy, Inc., Crescent Energy Company, Oceaneering International, Inc., Cactus, Inc., and California Resources Corp. Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median size of 3.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CNR?
The calibrated range for CNR over 63 trading days is $73.31 to $106.53. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $62.69 to $121.25. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CNR score on business quality?
Core Natural Resources's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 16 | 1.0%ROIC | 4.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 2.59xFCF / net income | 1.23x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 69 | 93.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -10.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 68 | -0.04xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.02x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 5 | 8.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.1 pts |
How does CNR compare with similar companies?
The companies in coal closest to Core Natural Resources in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | $89.35 | $85.17 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| BTU Peabody Energy Corporation | $24.81 | $28.01 | +12.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | $171.54 | $175.82 | +2.5% | Fairly valued |
| ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. | $33.47 | $34.17 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.46 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | $44.32 | $42.07 | -5.1% | Fairly valued |
| WHD Cactus, Inc. | $63.44 | $62.87 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.21 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
When does CNR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Core Natural Resources's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 13.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CNR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +7.1% |
| 7 May 2026 | -3.3% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -1.3% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +15.2% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -1.4% |
| 8 May 2025 | +6.9% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | +0.3% |
| 12 Nov 2024 | -3.5% |
Core Natural Resources at a glance
Core Natural Resources, Inc., which rebranded from CONSOL Energy Inc. in January 2025, specializes in the global production and sale of bituminous coal. The company's business is primarily organized into two key segments.
- Market value
- $4.5B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Coal
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.10
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Core Natural Resources on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CNR was $88.41. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $87.87, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Core Natural Resources's valuation
Is Core Natural Resources stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CNR reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $87.87 a share against a last close of $88.96, a gap of -1.2%.
What is CNR's fair value?
$87.87 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $62.69 to $121.25.
What price range does the model give CNR?
$73.31 to $106.53 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Core Natural Resources report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CNR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.2% around the report of 6 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CNR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.