NYSE: BTU · Coal
Peabody Energy (BTU) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Peabody Energy (BTU) at $28.01 a share. The stock last closed at $24.81, which puts the model's fair value 12.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Peabody Energy Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, and founded in 1883, Peabody Energy Corporation operates as a prominent global entity in the coal mining sector.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $28.01 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $28.55, so the fair value moved -1.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $21.61 to $31.59, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 52 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR), Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR), Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC), Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT), and Talos Energy Inc. (TALO). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 6.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BTU?
The calibrated range for BTU over 63 trading days is $21.61 to $31.59. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BTU's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $20.09 to $38.65. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BTU score on business quality?
Peabody Energy's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 17 | -3.6%ROIC | 3.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 64 | -8.9%Revenue growth, trailing | -12.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 0.2%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 72 | -0.36xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.02x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 6.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.1 pts |
How does BTU compare with similar companies?
The companies in coal closest to Peabody Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | $171.54 | $180.20 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | $88.96 | $88.41 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| HCC Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | $89.35 | $84.06 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. | $19.31 | $18.48 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| TALO Talos Energy Inc. | $16.78 | $24.70 | +47.2% | Undervalued |
| KNTK Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $52.53 | $44.34 | -15.6% | Low evidence grade |
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | $23.83 | $34.53 | +44.9% | Low evidence grade |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does BTU report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Peabody Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BTU's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.5% over one month.
How BTU moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -7.9% |
| 5 May 2026 | -5.9% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | +5.5% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | +1.6% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | +4.2% |
| 6 May 2025 | +16.4% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -11.4% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +7.2% |
Peabody Energy at a glance
Headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, and founded in 1883, Peabody Energy Corporation operates as a prominent global entity in the coal mining sector.
- Market value
- $3.1B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Coal
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.42
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Peabody Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BTU was $28.55. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $28.01, a change of -1.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Peabody Energy's valuation
Is Peabody Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BTU reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $28.01 a share against a last close of $24.81, a gap of +12.9%.
What is BTU's fair value?
$28.01 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $20.09 to $38.65.
What price range does the model give BTU?
$21.61 to $31.59 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Peabody Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BTU moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.4% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BTU is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.