NYSE: HCC · Coal
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Warrior Met Coal (HCC) at $84.06 a share. The stock last closed at $89.35, which puts the model's fair value 5.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Oct 2026
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama.
On 1 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $84.06 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -1.8% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $85.59. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $70.52 to $102.50, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The company has an overall quality score of 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 62, earnings quality is 19, growth quality is 55, capital discipline is 19, balance sheet is 75, and stability is 36. The model compares it with Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR), Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU), Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR), California Resources Corp (CRC), Oceaneering International, Inc. (OII), Cactus, Inc. (WHD), and Crescent Energy Company (CRGY). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from +25.4% to -5.9%, with a median size of 5.6%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HCC?
The calibrated range for HCC over 63 trading days is $70.52 to $102.50. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.39 to $131.93. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HCC score on business quality?
Warrior Met Coal's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 62 | 9.9%ROIC | -1.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 19 | 0.03xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 55 | -14.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -9.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 19 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 75 | -0.15xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 36 | 7.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.4 pts |
How does HCC compare with similar companies?
The companies in coal closest to Warrior Met Coal in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNR Core Natural Resources, Inc. | $88.96 | $88.41 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| BTU Peabody Energy Corporation | $24.81 | $28.01 | +12.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. | $171.54 | $180.20 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.02 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | $44.32 | $41.77 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| WHD Cactus, Inc. | $63.44 | $63.89 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
When does HCC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Warrior Met Coal's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 15.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How HCC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +10.0% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -4.3% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -4.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +25.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +10.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +5.3% |
| 13 Feb 2025 | -5.9% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +1.4% |
Warrior Met Coal at a glance
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama.
- Market value
- $4.7B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Coal
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +53.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.39
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Warrior Met Coal on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HCC was $85.59. As of 1 Oct 2026 it is $84.06, a change of -1.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Warrior Met Coal's valuation
Is Warrior Met Coal stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HCC reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $84.06 a share against a last close of $89.35, a gap of -5.9%.
What is HCC's fair value?
$84.06 a share as of 1 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.39 to $131.93.
What price range does the model give HCC?
$70.52 to $102.50 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Warrior Met Coal report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HCC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.4% around the report of 5 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HCC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.