NYSE: AMTM · Aerospace & Defense
Amentum Holdings (AMTM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Amentum Holdings (AMTM) at $27.66 a share. The stock last closed at $22.38, which puts the model's fair value 23.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Amentum Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $28.92 to $27.66 (-4.4%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $22.38 is 23.6% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 23 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 15% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AMTM?
The calibrated range for AMTM over 63 trading days is $18.99 to $27.38. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AMTM's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $15.59 to $42.32. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Amentum Holdings, Inc. provides critical, technology-driven services to governmental and commercial sectors. It runs two segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $27.66 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $28.92, so the fair value moved -4.4%. The model says the multiple it anchors on moved, lowering the fair value, and that this accounts for most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $18.99 to $27.38. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium.
Faircurve's model gives the company a quality score of 65 out of 100 against comparable companies. Stability is the strongest factor at 99, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.8 pts against a peer median of 4.3 pts. Balance sheet is the weakest at 25, with net debt to EBITDA of 3.63x against a peer median of 2.92x. Earnings quality scores 83, on FCF to net income of 2.38x. The model compares the company with Hexcel Corporation (HXL), Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY), AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), VSE Corporation (VSEC), AAR Corp. (AIR), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), StandardAero, Inc. (SARO) and Moog Inc. (MOG-A).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AMTM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Amentum Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 3 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 15.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 44 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AMTM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.9% over one month.
Around its last 7 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AMTM's last 7 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.4%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AMTM
How does AMTM score on business quality?
Amentum Holdings's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 56 | 5.3%ROIC | 0.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | 2.38xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 60 | 71.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 69 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 25 | 3.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.92x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 99 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does AMTM compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Amentum Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HXL Hexcel Corporation | $81.83 | $84.98 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $80.32 | $72.06 | -10.3% | Fairly valued |
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $123.53 | $132.46 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| VSEC VSE Corporation | $162.96 | $129.35 | -20.6% | Overvalued |
| AIR AAR Corp. | $108.62 | $149.24 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $40.99 | $37.85 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $25.23 | $35.63 | +41.2% | Undervalued |
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $361.40 | $346.60 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AMTM, the peer-implied price, is $78.73 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Amentum Holdings at a glance
Amentum Holdings, Inc. is a provider of critical, technology-driven services, serving both governmental and commercial sectors. Its operations are structured around two distinct segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence.
- Market value
- $5.3B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.01
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AMTM was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Amentum Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AMTM was $28.92. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $27.66, a change of -4.4%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lowering the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Amentum Holdings's valuation
Is Amentum Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AMTM reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $27.66 a share against a last close of $22.38, a gap of +23.6%.
What is AMTM's fair value?
$27.66 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $15.59 to $42.32.
What price range does the model give AMTM?
$18.99 to $27.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Amentum Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AMTM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 7 reports the median two session move was 9.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.7% around the report of 24 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AMTM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AMTM
The model holds no idea open on AMTM today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AMTM with their outcomes. A free account is enough.