NYSE: HXL · Aerospace & Defense
Hexcel (HXL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Hexcel (HXL) at $84.98 a share. The stock last closed at $81.83, which puts the model's fair value 3.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Hexcel Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $86.26 to $84.98 (-1.5%). Analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $81.83 is 3.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 23 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give HXL?
The calibrated range for HXL over 63 trading days is $72.86 to $94.38. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HXL's own options imply (39% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $67.16 to $105.69. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Hexcel Corporation focuses on the innovation, production and sale of advanced structural materials.
The model's fair value for Hexcel is $84.98 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations in the run on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $86.26, so the fair value moved -1.5%. The model gives the reason as follows: "Analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $72.86 to $94.38. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High. The grade looks at input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Hexcel's overall quality score is 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality scores 94, with free cash flow at 1.49x net income against a peer median of 0.73x. Capital discipline scores 79, with net buybacks at 6.0% of market value against a peer median of 0.1%. Stability scores 29, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.3 pts against a peer median of 0.7 pts. The model compares Hexcel with AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV), Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM), Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY), Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS), StandardAero, Inc. (SARO), VSE Corporation (VSEC), AAR Corp. (AIR) and Moog Inc. (MOG-A).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does HXL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hexcel's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 4 Nov 2026, HXL's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 11.3% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across HXL's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in HXL
How does HXL score on business quality?
Hexcel's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 71 | 9.7%ROIC | 7.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 94 | 1.49xFCF / net income | 0.73x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | -0.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 6.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 2.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 29 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.7 pts |
How does HXL compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to Hexcel in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV AeroVironment, Inc. | $123.53 | $132.46 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc. | $22.38 | $27.66 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $80.32 | $72.06 | -10.3% | Fairly valued |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $40.99 | $37.85 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $25.23 | $35.63 | +41.2% | Undervalued |
| VSEC VSE Corporation | $162.96 | $129.35 | -20.6% | Overvalued |
| AIR AAR Corp. | $108.62 | $149.24 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $361.40 | $346.60 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for HXL, the peer-implied price, is $106.19 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Hexcel at a glance
Hexcel Corporation, operating through its various subsidiaries, focuses on the innovation, production, and sale of advanced structural materials.
- Market value
- $5.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +9.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. HXL was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hexcel on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for HXL was $86.26. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $84.98, a change of -1.5%. Analysts cut their next-twelve-month EBITDA estimates: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hexcel's valuation
Is Hexcel stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HXL reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $84.98 a share against a last close of $81.83, a gap of +3.8%.
What is HXL's fair value?
$84.98 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $67.16 to $105.69.
What price range does the model give HXL?
$72.86 to $94.38 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Hexcel report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HXL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.0% around the report of 21 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HXL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on HXL
The model has an idea open on HXL under Scorecard Leaders since 23 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on HXL with their outcomes. A free account is enough.