NASDAQ: AVAV · Aerospace & Defense
AeroVironment (AVAV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values AeroVironment (AVAV) at $151.63 a share. The stock last closed at $140.82, which puts the model's fair value 7.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. AeroVironment, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe.
On 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $151.63 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $157.38, so the fair value moved -3.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days was $121.60 to $182.00; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was High.
The business scored 52 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., Hexcel Corporation, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., VSE Corporation, Mercury Systems, Inc., and Moog Inc. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 10.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AVAV?
The calibrated range for AVAV over 63 trading days is $121.60 to $182.00. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AVAV's own options imply (57% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $112.64 to $203.34. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AVAV score on business quality?
AeroVironment's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | -0.2%ROIC | 7.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 84 | 140.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -9.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.03x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 5.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does AVAV compare with similar companies?
The companies in aerospace & defense closest to AeroVironment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SARO StandardAero, Inc. | $21.05 | $34.72 | +64.9% | Gap wider than 60% |
| KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $43.07 | $40.49 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| HXL Hexcel Corporation | $86.41 | $91.46 | +5.8% | Fairly valued |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $268.54 | $294.36 | +9.6% | Fairly valued |
| VSEC VSE Corporation | $167.28 | $166.43 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | $84.87 | $78.13 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| MOG-A Moog Inc. | $392.73 | $367.81 | -6.3% | Fairly valued |
| AMTM Amentum Holdings, Inc. | $18.14 | $24.55 | +35.3% | Low evidence grade |
When does AVAV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AeroVironment's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AVAV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.4% over one month.
How AVAV moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | -1.1% |
| 29 Jun 2026 | +19.7% |
| 10 Mar 2026 | -8.6% |
| 9 Dec 2025 | -13.2% |
| 9 Sep 2025 | +4.3% |
| 24 Jun 2025 | +22.9% |
| 4 Mar 2025 | -4.9% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | -14.2% |
AeroVironment at a glance
AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe.
- Market value
- $7.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 2.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AeroVironment on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AVAV was $157.38. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $151.63, a change of -3.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AeroVironment's valuation
Is AeroVironment stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AVAV reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $151.63 a share against a last close of $140.82, a gap of +7.7%.
What is AVAV's fair value?
$151.63 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $112.64 to $203.34.
What price range does the model give AVAV?
$121.60 to $182.00 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does AeroVironment report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AVAV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.9% around the report of 24 Jun 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AVAV is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.