NYSE: AOS · Industrial Machinery
A. O. Smith (AOS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values A. O. Smith (AOS) at $68.87 a share. The stock last closed at $56.75, which puts the model's fair value 21.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. A. O. Smith Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
A. O. Smith Corporation is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions.
Faircurve's model valued A. O. Smith Corporation at $68.87 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.5% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $70.65. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $57.46 to $83.49, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
A. O. Smith Corporation scores 72 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Profitability 100, Earnings quality 82, Growth quality 39, Capital discipline 80, Balance sheet 93, and Stability 0. The model compares it with Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, Pentair plc, EnPro Industries, Inc., Gates Industrial Corporation plc, AAON, Inc., Flowserve Corporation, Terex Corporation, and Donaldson Company, Inc. The stock moved a median of 3.7%, ignoring direction, around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AOS?
The calibrated range for AOS over 63 trading days is $57.46 to $83.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $52.53 to $90.07. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AOS score on business quality?
A. O. Smith's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 22.2%ROIC | 12.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 82 | 1.28xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 39 | 0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 80 | 4.0%Net buybacks / market value | 2.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | 0.67xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.98x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 4.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does AOS compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to A. O. Smith in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $47.67 | $43.66 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $53.03 | $61.69 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $332.56 | $253.12 | -23.9% | Overvalued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $27.65 | $30.45 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $83.27 | $84.35 | +1.3% | Fairly valued |
| FLS Flowserve Corporation | $74.37 | $75.70 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| TEX Terex Corporation | $56.71 | $49.12 | -13.4% | Fairly valued |
| DCI Donaldson Company, Inc. | $88.65 | $82.42 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
When does AOS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
A. O. Smith's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How AOS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -3.1% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | -5.2% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +5.8% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -4.4% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +1.0% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +4.8% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -2.8% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -1.7% |
A. O. Smith at a glance
A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a global manufacturer and marketer specializing in a comprehensive array of water heating and treatment solutions.
- Market value
- $7.9B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.60
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices A. O. Smith on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AOS was $70.65. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $68.87, a change of -2.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about A. O. Smith's valuation
Is A. O. Smith stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AOS reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $68.87 a share against a last close of $56.75, a gap of +21.4%.
What is AOS's fair value?
$68.87 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $52.53 to $90.07.
What price range does the model give AOS?
$57.46 to $83.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does A. O. Smith report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AOS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +5.8% around the report of 29 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AOS is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.