NYSE: NPO · Industrial Machinery
EnPro Industries (NPO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values EnPro Industries (NPO) at $246.76 a share. The stock last closed at $332.56, which puts the model's fair value 25.8% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. EnPro Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
EnPro Industries, Inc. is a global enterprise focused on the development, manufacturing, sales, and support of advanced industrial components. Its operations span the United States, Europe, and numerous other international regions.
Faircurve's model valued the company on 26 Sep 2026 at $246.76 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $241.77, so the fair value moved +2.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $207.03 to $300.88, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 50 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability is 18, earnings quality 97, growth quality 75, capital discipline 10, balance sheet 38, and stability 47. The model compares the company with Terex Corporation (TEX), Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES), AAON, Inc. (AAON), JBT Marel Corporation (JBTM), Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation (ZWS), A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS), Pentair plc (PNR), and The Middleby Corporation (MIDD). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NPO?
The calibrated range for NPO over 63 trading days is $207.03 to $300.88. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $200.23 to $300.99. In 16% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NPO score on business quality?
EnPro Industries's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 18 | 6.6%ROIC | 10.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 97 | 3.71xFCF / net income | 1.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 75 | 9.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 10 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 38 | 2.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.40x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 47 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does NPO compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to EnPro Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX Terex Corporation | $56.71 | $47.99 | -15.4% | Overvalued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $27.65 | $29.63 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $83.27 | $87.59 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $108.60 | $106.42 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $47.67 | $43.31 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | $56.75 | $68.87 | +21.4% | Undervalued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $53.03 | $61.93 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $104.57 | $126.71 | +21.2% | Undervalued |
When does NPO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
EnPro Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
On 2 Oct 2026 NPO moved 5.3% in one session, against the 2.4% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
How NPO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -1.7% |
| 5 May 2026 | +5.9% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +3.0% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -2.7% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +2.8% |
| 6 May 2025 | +17.9% |
| 19 Feb 2025 | +5.9% |
| 5 Nov 2024 | +13.1% |
EnPro Industries at a glance
EnPro Industries, Inc. is a global enterprise focused on the development, manufacturing, sales, and support of advanced industrial components. Its operations span the United States, Europe, and numerous other international regions.
- Market value
- $6.6B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.71
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices EnPro Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NPO was $241.77. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $246.76, a change of +2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about EnPro Industries's valuation
Is EnPro Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NPO reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $246.76 a share against a last close of $332.56, a gap of -25.8%.
What is NPO's fair value?
$246.76 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $200.23 to $300.99.
What price range does the model give NPO?
$207.03 to $300.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does EnPro Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NPO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +17.9% around the report of 6 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NPO is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.