NYSE: TEX · Industrial Machinery
Terex (TEX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Terex (TEX) at $49.12 a share. The stock last closed at $56.71, which puts the model's fair value 13.4% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Terex Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Terex Corporation operates globally and specializes in the production and distribution of aerial work platforms and a diverse range of materials processing equipment. The company is in the Industrials sector, specifically Industrial Machinery.
Faircurve's model valued Terex Corporation on 3 Oct 2026, giving a fair value of $49.12 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved +0.6% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $48.83. The model’s calibrated range over 63 trading days is $40.98 to $59.55, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model’s evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 48 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability scores 0, with ROIC at 4.0% against a peer median of 10.7%. Earnings quality scores 78, with FCF / net income at 2.28x against a peer median of 1.35x. The model compares Terex Corporation with AAON, Inc., Gates Industrial Corporation plc, EnPro Industries, Inc., JBT Marel Corporation, A. O. Smith Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, Pentair plc, and The Middleby Corporation. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TEX?
The calibrated range for TEX over 63 trading days is $40.98 to $59.55. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.25 to $65.58. In 33% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TEX score on business quality?
Terex's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 4.0%ROIC | 10.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 2.28xFCF / net income | 1.35x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 83 | 5.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 38 | 5.15xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.9 pts |
How does TEX compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Terex in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $83.27 | $84.35 | +1.3% | Fairly valued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $27.65 | $30.45 | +10.1% | Fairly valued |
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $332.56 | $253.12 | -23.9% | Overvalued |
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $108.60 | $101.67 | -6.4% | Fairly valued |
| AOS A. O. Smith Corporation | $56.75 | $68.87 | +21.4% | Undervalued |
| ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $47.67 | $43.66 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| PNR Pentair plc | $53.03 | $61.69 | +16.3% | Undervalued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $104.57 | $124.63 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
When does TEX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Terex's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 13.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How TEX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -2.7% |
| 1 May 2026 | -5.1% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +10.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -17.8% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -1.7% |
| 2 May 2025 | +23.6% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -6.8% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -4.7% |
Terex at a glance
Operating globally, Terex Corporation specializes in the production and distribution of aerial work platforms and a diverse range of materials processing equipment.
- Market value
- $6.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $8.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +50.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.82
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Terex on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TEX was $48.83. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $49.12, a change of +0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Terex's valuation
Is Terex stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TEX reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $49.12 a share against a last close of $56.71, a gap of -13.4%.
What is TEX's fair value?
$49.12 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.25 to $65.58.
What price range does the model give TEX?
$40.98 to $59.55 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Terex report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TEX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.6% around the report of 2 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TEX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.