NYSE: GTES · Industrial Machinery
Gates Industrial (GTES) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Gates Industrial (GTES) at $27.63 a share. The stock last closed at $23.56, which puts the model's fair value 17.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Gates Industrial Corporation plc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $28.52 to $27.63 (-3.1%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $23.56 is 17.3% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GTES?
The calibrated range for GTES over 63 trading days is $20.48 to $27.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GTES's own options imply (47% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.01 to $33.95. In 71% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Gates Industrial Corporation plc is an industrial machinery company. It operates worldwide, specialising in the engineering, manufacturing, and sale of sophisticated power transmission and fluid power systems.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES) a fair value of $27.63 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $28.52, so the fair value moved -3.1%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $21.53 to $28.61, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon across 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is High. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Gates scores 43 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a score against comparable companies. Capital discipline stands out at 71, with net buybacks at 3.4% of market value against a peer median of 0.4%. Earnings quality is the weakest factor at 25, with free cash flow to net income of 1.00x against a peer median of 1.30x. The model compares Gates with EnPro Industries, Terex, JBT Marel, AAON, The Middleby Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions and ESAB. Mirion Technologies has no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does GTES report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Gates Industrial's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GTES's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.6% over one month.
On 30 Oct 2026 GTES moved 9.2% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 3.0 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GTES's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in GTES
How does GTES score on business quality?
Gates Industrial's overall quality score is 43 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 47 | 9.7%ROIC | 10.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 25 | 1.00xFCF / net income | 1.30x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 31 | 1.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 3.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 48 | 2.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 58 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does GTES compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to Gates Industrial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $257.26 | $222.45 | -13.5% | Fairly valued |
| TEX Terex Corporation | $54.51 | $54.77 | +0.5% | Fairly valued |
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $126.82 | $104.54 | -17.6% | Overvalued |
| AAON AAON, Inc. | $54.42 | $70.25 | +29.1% | Undervalued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $130.14 | $126.32 | -2.9% | Fairly valued |
| ZWS Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation | $43.85 | $41.64 | -5.0% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $17.13 | $17.72 | +3.4% | Low evidence grade |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | $79.12 | $73.96 | -6.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GTES, the peer-implied price, is $32.72 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Gates Industrial at a glance
Gates Industrial Corporation plc operates worldwide, specializing in the engineering, manufacturing, and sale of sophisticated power transmission and fluid power systems.
- Market value
- $6.0B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. GTES was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Gates Industrial on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GTES was $28.52. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $27.63, a change of -3.1%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Gates Industrial's valuation
Is Gates Industrial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GTES reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $27.63 a share against a last close of $23.56, a gap of +17.3%.
What is GTES's fair value?
$27.63 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.01 to $33.95.
What price range does the model give GTES?
$20.48 to $27.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Gates Industrial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GTES moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.3% around the report of 29 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GTES is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GTES
The model holds no idea open on GTES today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GTES with their outcomes. A free account is enough.