NASDAQ: AAON · Industrial Machinery
AAON (AAON) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values AAON (AAON) at $70.25 a share. The stock last closed at $69.08, which puts the model's fair value 1.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. AAON, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $72.05 to $70.25 (-2.5%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $69.08 is 1.7% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 5 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 19% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AAON?
The calibrated range for AAON over 63 trading days is $53.67 to $94.20. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AAON's own options imply (85% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $51.45 to $94.60. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
AAON, Inc. focuses on the engineering, manufacturing, promotion, and sale of heating and air conditioning systems throughout the United States and Canada.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $70.25 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $72.05, so the fair value moved -2.5%. The model's reason is that the stock's own trading multiple fell, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $54.23 to $93.01. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score for AAON is 45 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Balance sheet scores 80, with net debt to EBITDA at 1.55x against a peer median of 2.14x. Growth quality scores 75, with trailing revenue growth at 20.1% against a peer median of 12.2%. At the other end, earnings quality scores 0, with FCF to net income at -0.75x against a peer median of 0.96x, and capital discipline scores 6, with net buybacks to market value at 0.0% against a peer median of 1.5%. The model compares AAON with JBT Marel Corporation (JBTM), The Middleby Corporation (MIDD), EnPro Industries, Inc. (NPO), Gates Industrial Corporation plc (GTES), Terex Corporation (TEX), ESAB Corporation (ESAB) and Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AAON report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AAON's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 19.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AAON's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 24.5% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 AAON moved 15.7% in one session, against the 5.1% a day that options had priced: 3.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AAON's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AAON
How does AAON score on business quality?
AAON's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 63 | 12.0%ROIC | 8.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -0.75xFCF / net income | 0.96x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 75 | 20.1%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 6 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 80 | 1.55xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.14x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 25 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.6 pts |
How does AAON compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to AAON in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBTM JBT Marel Corporation | $118.06 | $104.54 | -11.5% | Fairly valued |
| MIDD The Middleby Corporation | $122.73 | $126.32 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| NPO EnPro Industries, Inc. | $285.27 | $222.45 | -22.0% | Overvalued |
| GTES Gates Industrial Corporation plc | $24.57 | $27.63 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| TEX Terex Corporation | $57.52 | $52.31 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| MIR Mirion Technologies, Inc. | $19.05 | $17.72 | -7.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ESAB ESAB Corporation | $76.05 | $73.96 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| BMI Badger Meter, Inc. | $152.58 | $145.74 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AAON, the peer-implied price, is $74.29 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
AAON at a glance
AAON, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, focuses on the engineering, manufacturing, promotion, and sale of heating and air conditioning systems throughout the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $5.6B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +60.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 2.33
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AAON was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AAON on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AAON was $72.05. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $70.25, a change of -2.5%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AAON's valuation
Is AAON stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AAON reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $70.25 a share against a last close of $69.08, a gap of +1.7%.
What is AAON's fair value?
$70.25 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $51.45 to $94.60.
What price range does the model give AAON?
$53.67 to $94.20 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does AAON report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AAON moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +42.1% around the report of 7 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AAON is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AAON
The model holds no idea open on AAON today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AAON with their outcomes. A free account is enough.