NYSE: ARLO · Communication Equipment
Arlo Technologies (ARLO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Arlo Technologies (ARLO) at $15.16 a share. The stock last closed at $12.78, which puts the model's fair value 18.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Arlo Technologies, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Arlo Technologies, Inc. delivers a comprehensive, cloud-centric smart security ecosystem across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific regions.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $15.16 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was -0.6% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $15.25. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $12.72 to $18.48, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 84 out of 100, against comparable companies. The model compares it with Harmonic Inc., Calix, Inc., Extreme Networks, Inc., Digi International Inc., Belden Inc., Viavi Solutions Inc., and Zebra Technologies Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -16.3% to +82.7%, with a median size of 10.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ARLO?
The calibrated range for ARLO over 63 trading days is $12.72 to $18.48. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.12 to $18.67. In 74% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ARLO score on business quality?
Arlo Technologies's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 23.8%ROIC | -15.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 2.19xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 56 | 3.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 28.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 86 | 4.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -2.44xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 48 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does ARLO compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Arlo Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLIT Harmonic Inc. | $11.17 | $12.98 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| CALX Calix, Inc. | $34.81 | $34.45 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $23.12 | $24.60 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ARLO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Arlo Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ARLO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -4.4% |
| 7 May 2026 | +4.7% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +31.7% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -16.3% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +3.8% |
| 8 May 2025 | +82.7% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +21.0% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +1.3% |
Arlo Technologies at a glance
Arlo Technologies, Inc. delivers a comprehensive, cloud-centric smart security ecosystem across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific regions.
- Market value
- $1.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $616M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +11.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Arlo Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ARLO was $15.25. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $15.16, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Arlo Technologies's valuation
Is Arlo Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARLO reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $15.16 a share against a last close of $12.78, a gap of +18.6%.
What is ARLO's fair value?
$15.16 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.12 to $18.67.
What price range does the model give ARLO?
$12.72 to $18.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Arlo Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARLO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +82.7% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARLO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.