NYSE: CALX · Communication Equipment
Calix (CALX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Calix (CALX) at $34.45 a share. The stock last closed at $34.81, which puts the model's fair value 1.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Calix, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Calix, Inc. is a global technology provider that specializes in cloud and software platforms, robust systems, and comprehensive services. It is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Faircurve's model valued Calix, Inc. at $34.45 a share on 26 Sep 2026. This was the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's fair value moved -4.9% since the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $36.24. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $28.90 to $42.01, built from the fair value because there was no live options data for the stock. This range was calibrated weekly against realised prices, which included 4,327 past valuations, refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade was Medium.
Calix, Inc. scored 73 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compared it with Extreme Networks, Inc., Digi International Inc., Arlo Technologies, Inc., Harmonic Inc., Belden Inc., Viavi Solutions Inc., and Zebra Technologies Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -17.3% to +35.4%, with a median size of 9.0%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CALX?
The calibrated range for CALX over 63 trading days is $28.90 to $42.01. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.93 to $47.00. In 53% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CALX score on business quality?
Calix's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 41 | 6.6%ROIC | 5.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.67xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 94 | 20.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 93 | 12.5%Net buybacks / market value | 4.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 85 | -0.62xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 64 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.6 pts |
How does CALX compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Calix in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $23.12 | $24.60 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $12.78 | $15.16 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| HLIT Harmonic Inc. | $11.17 | $12.98 | +16.2% | Undervalued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does CALX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Calix's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CALX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.0%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026 | -4.3% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -17.3% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -16.6% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +10.1% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | +3.3% |
| 21 Apr 2025 | +35.4% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +7.8% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -0.7% |
Calix at a glance
Headquartered in San Jose, California, Calix, Inc., established in 1999, is a global technology provider specializing in cloud and software platforms, robust systems, and comprehensive services.
- Market value
- $2.1B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.85
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Calix on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CALX was $36.24. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $34.45, a change of -4.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Calix's valuation
Is Calix stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CALX reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $34.45 a share against a last close of $34.81, a gap of -1.0%.
What is CALX's fair value?
$34.45 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.93 to $47.00.
What price range does the model give CALX?
$28.90 to $42.01 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Calix report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CALX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +35.4% around the report of 21 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CALX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.