NASDAQ: EXTR · Communication Equipment
Extreme Networks (EXTR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Extreme Networks (EXTR) at $28.27 a share. The stock last closed at $23.12, which puts the model's fair value 22.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Extreme Networks, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Extreme Networks, Inc. is a global provider specializing in software-driven networking solutions.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $28.27 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $24.59; the fair value moved +15.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $23.59 to $34.27. This range is built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 72 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Digi International Inc. (DGII), Calix, Inc. (CALX), Belden Inc. (BDC), Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO), Harmonic Inc. (HLIT), Viavi Solutions Inc. (VIAV), and Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 12.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EXTR?
The calibrated range for EXTR over 63 trading days is $23.59 to $34.27. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 48% ended below it; the typical move was +3.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $19.56 to $40.47. In 67% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EXTR score on business quality?
Extreme Networks's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 72.5%ROIC | 7.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 72 | 1.45xFCF / net income | 1.96x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 64 | 12.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 72 | 2.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | -0.21xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 27 | 3.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.9 pts |
How does EXTR compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Extreme Networks in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $69.27 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| CALX Calix, Inc. | $34.81 | $34.87 | +0.2% | Fairly valued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $168.79 | +50.1% | Undervalued |
| ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $12.78 | $14.80 | +15.8% | Undervalued |
| HLIT Harmonic Inc. | $11.17 | $15.24 | +36.4% | Undervalued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $99.16 | +37.7% | Low evidence grade |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $44.25 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $454.76 | +21.0% | Undervalued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EXTR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Extreme Networks's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EXTR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -24.8% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +29.6% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -2.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -12.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +12.8% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +35.1% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | -4.0% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | +5.0% |
Extreme Networks at a glance
Extreme Networks, Inc. is a global provider specializing in software-driven networking solutions.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.38
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Extreme Networks on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EXTR was $24.59. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $28.27, a change of +15.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Extreme Networks's valuation
Is Extreme Networks stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EXTR reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $28.27 a share against a last close of $23.12, a gap of +22.3%.
What is EXTR's fair value?
$28.27 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $19.56 to $40.47.
What price range does the model give EXTR?
$23.59 to $34.27 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Extreme Networks report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EXTR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +35.1% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EXTR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.