NASDAQ: HLIT · Communication Equipment
Harmonic (HLIT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Harmonic (HLIT) at $12.98 a share. The stock last closed at $11.17, which puts the model's fair value 16.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Harmonic Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Harmonic Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates globally, delivering advanced software, hardware, system solutions, and related services for video content distribution.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $12.98 a share for Harmonic Inc. on 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $13.51, so the fair value moved -3.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.89 to $15.83, built from the fair value. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 84 out of 100, against comparable companies such as Arlo Technologies, Inc. and Calix, Inc. Profitability scored 91, and Earnings quality and Stability both scored 100. Growth quality scored 50, and Capital discipline scored 77. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 3.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give HLIT?
The calibrated range for HLIT over 63 trading days is $10.89 to $15.83. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $9.16 to $18.34. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HLIT score on business quality?
Harmonic's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 14.8%ROIC | 1.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 50 | -46.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 6.3%Net buybacks / market value | 3.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 86 | -1.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.47x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does HLIT compare with similar companies?
The companies in communication equipment closest to Harmonic in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO Arlo Technologies, Inc. | $12.78 | $15.16 | +18.6% | Undervalued |
| CALX Calix, Inc. | $34.81 | $34.45 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $23.12 | $24.60 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| DGII Digi International Inc. | $75.61 | $77.22 | +2.1% | Fairly valued |
| BDC Belden Inc. | $112.46 | $162.76 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| VIAV Viavi Solutions Inc. | $47.10 | $39.07 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $72.00 | $100.29 | +39.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation | $375.86 | $422.73 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
All communication equipment stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does HLIT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Harmonic's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How HLIT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | +14.2% |
| 11 May 2026 | +1.1% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +3.2% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | -2.5% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -3.1% |
| 28 Apr 2025 | -3.7% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | -15.4% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -24.9% |
Harmonic at a glance
Harmonic Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates globally, delivering advanced software, hardware, system solutions, and related services for video content distribution.
- Market value
- $1.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $559M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +43.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 1.84
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Harmonic on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HLIT was $13.51. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $12.98, a change of -3.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Harmonic's valuation
Is Harmonic stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HLIT reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $12.98 a share against a last close of $11.17, a gap of +16.2%.
What is HLIT's fair value?
$12.98 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $9.16 to $18.34.
What price range does the model give HLIT?
$10.89 to $15.83 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Harmonic report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HLIT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -24.9% around the report of 28 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HLIT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.