NYSE: WMS · Construction Materials
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) at $136.03 a share. The stock last closed at $122.63, which puts the model's fair value 10.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $130.04 to $136.03 (+4.6%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $122.63 is 10.9% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 14 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give WMS?
The calibrated range for WMS over 63 trading days is $107.99 to $143.37. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that WMS's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $109.29 to $166.84. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. was established in Hilliard, Ohio in 1966. It is a leading provider of innovative water management solutions.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value at $136.03 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run gave $130.04, so the fair value moved +4.6%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $120.94 to $164.90, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model scores the business 63 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest factor at 79, with FCF / net income of 1.22x against a peer median of 1.19x. Growth quality is 78, with trailing revenue growth of 5.0% against a peer median of -3.4%. Stability is the lowest factor at 28, with EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years of 3.4 pts against a peer median of 2.4 pts. The model compares the company with Owens Corning (OC), Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD), Carlisle Companies Incorporated (CSL), Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI), Masco Corporation (MAS) and Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does WMS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Advanced Drainage Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. WMS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 WMS moved 14.9% in one session, against the 2.8% a day that options had priced: 5.3 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across WMS's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in WMS
How does WMS score on business quality?
Advanced Drainage Systems's overall quality score is 63 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 65 | 16.3%ROIC | 15.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 79 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 1.19x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 78 | 5.0%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 33 | 3.2%Net buybacks / market value | 5.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 57 | 1.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.02x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 28 | 3.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does WMS compare with similar companies?
The companies in construction materials closest to Advanced Drainage Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OC Owens Corning | $124.26 | $135.05 | +8.7% | Fairly valued |
| SPXC SPX Technologies, Inc. | $138.54 | $164.31 | +18.6% | Low evidence grade |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $198.84 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| CSL Carlisle Companies Incorporated | $378.96 | $372.69 | -1.7% | Fairly valued |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $170.54 | $173.66 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| MAS Masco Corporation | $83.83 | $84.73 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| EXP Eagle Materials Inc. | $189.24 | $182.61 | -3.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for WMS, the peer-implied price, is $139.21 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All construction materials stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Advanced Drainage Systems at a glance
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc., established in Hilliard, Ohio in 1966, is a leading provider of innovative water management solutions.
- Market value
- $10.2B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.94
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 55.1% of the 1,061 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. WMS was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Advanced Drainage Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for WMS was $130.04. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $136.03, a change of +4.6%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Advanced Drainage Systems's valuation
Is Advanced Drainage Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, WMS reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $136.03 a share against a last close of $122.63, a gap of +10.9%.
What is WMS's fair value?
$136.03 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $109.29 to $166.84.
What price range does the model give WMS?
$107.99 to $143.37 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Advanced Drainage Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has WMS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.4% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for WMS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on WMS
The model has an idea open on WMS under Earnings Momentum since 14 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on WMS with their outcomes. A free account is enough.