NASDAQ: JAZZ · Biotechnology
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) at $256.45 a share. The stock last closed at $229.74, which puts the model's fair value 11.6% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $256.45, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $229.74 is 11.6% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 8% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 21 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give JAZZ?
The calibrated range for JAZZ over 63 trading days is $212.53 to $252.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that JAZZ's own options imply (26% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $149.84 to $412.56. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc is a healthcare company in biotechnology. It identifies, develops and commercialises pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe and internationally.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $256.45 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, and it moved +0.9% from $254.16 on 24 Oct 2026. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $212.53 to $252.80, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Jazz scores 64 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Earnings quality stands out at 95, with free cash flow to net income of 1.64x against a peer median of 1.12x. Profitability scores 85, with ROIC of 18.8% against a peer median of 14.5%. Stability scores 6, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 11.1 pts against a peer median of 4.3 pts. The model compares the company with Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX), Bio-Techne Corporation (TECH), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN), Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) and Krystal Biotech, Inc. (KRYS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does JAZZ report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 43 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. JAZZ's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.6% over one month.
On 3 Nov 2026 JAZZ moved 7.1% in one session, against the 2.5% a day that options had priced: 2.9 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across JAZZ's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in JAZZ
How does JAZZ score on business quality?
Jazz Pharmaceuticals's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 85 | 18.8%ROIC | 14.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.64xFCF / net income | 1.12x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 55 | 4.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 21.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 42 | 1.70xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.45x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 6 | 11.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does JAZZ compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Jazz Pharmaceuticals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. | $164.85 | $162.09 | -1.7% | Fairly valued |
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $128.62 | $134.12 | +4.3% | Low evidence grade |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | $72.66 | $64.04 | -11.9% | Fairly valued |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $55.66 | $70.40 | +26.5% | Undervalued |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $72.31 | $68.28 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $305.03 | $384.08 | +25.9% | Undervalued |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | $140.24 | $167.40 | +19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. | $60.75 | $70.94 | +16.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for JAZZ, the peer-implied price, is $678.03 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals at a glance
Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc identifies, develops, and commercializes pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
- Market value
- $14.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- 0.33
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Jazz Pharmaceuticals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for JAZZ was $254.16. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $256.45, a change of +0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Jazz Pharmaceuticals's valuation
Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts JAZZ's fair value at $256.45 a share against a last close of $229.74, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is JAZZ's fair value?
$256.45 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $149.84 to $412.56.
What price range does the model give JAZZ?
$212.53 to $252.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Jazz Pharmaceuticals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JAZZ moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.6% around the report of 24 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JAZZ is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on JAZZ
The model has an idea open on JAZZ under Scorecard Leaders since 21 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on JAZZ with their outcomes. A free account is enough.