NASDAQ: NBIX · Biotechnology
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) at $162.09 a share. The stock last closed at $159.76, which puts the model's fair value 1.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $152.34 to $162.09 (+6.4%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $159.76 is 1.5% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give NBIX?
The calibrated range for NBIX over 63 trading days is $142.72 to $183.50. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NBIX's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $113.93 to $226.58. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a pharmaceutical firm. It creates, advances and sells medicines for neurological, endocrine and psychiatric conditions.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $162.09 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. That is up 6.4% from $152.34 on the previous run, on 24 Oct 2026. The sheet gives the reason in the model's own words: "The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $151.74 to $182.52. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence Medium, based on how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model scores the business 68 out of 100 on quality, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is highest at 88, with trailing revenue growth of 21.4% against a peer median of 12.9%. Stability scores 87, while profitability scores 55, with ROIC of 15.7% against a peer median of 26.5%. The model compares the company with Exelixis, Bio-Techne, BioMarin and Krystal Biotech, each with a fair value of its own on the site.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does NBIX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Neurocrine Biosciences's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NBIX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.0% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 NBIX moved 3.8% in one session, against the 1.8% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across NBIX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in NBIX
How does NBIX score on business quality?
Neurocrine Biosciences's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 15.7%ROIC | 26.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 70 | 1.23xFCF / net income | 1.08x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 88 | 21.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 64 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 53 | 0.08xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.83x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 87 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.0 pts |
How does NBIX compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Neurocrine Biosciences in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $122.96 | $134.12 | +9.1% | Low evidence grade |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $227.32 | $256.45 | +12.8% | Low evidence grade |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $68.71 | $68.28 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| TECH Bio-Techne Corporation | $72.66 | $64.91 | -10.7% | Fairly valued |
| BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $56.12 | $70.40 | +25.4% | Undervalued |
| ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $156.66 | $165.50 | +5.6% | Low evidence grade |
| KRYS Krystal Biotech, Inc. | $300.25 | $384.08 | +27.9% | Undervalued |
| PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. | $135.26 | $167.40 | +23.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for NBIX, the peer-implied price, is $207.54 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Neurocrine Biosciences at a glance
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is a pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the creation, advancement, and commercialization of medicines addressing a spectrum of neurological, endocrine, and psychiatric conditions.
- Market value
- $14.9B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +36.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.56
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. NBIX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Neurocrine Biosciences on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for NBIX was $152.34. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $162.09, a change of +6.4%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Neurocrine Biosciences's valuation
Is Neurocrine Biosciences stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NBIX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $162.09 a share against a last close of $159.76, a gap of +1.5%.
What is NBIX's fair value?
$162.09 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $113.93 to $226.58.
What price range does the model give NBIX?
$142.72 to $183.50 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Neurocrine Biosciences report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NBIX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -18.9% around the report of 6 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NBIX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on NBIX
The model holds no idea open on NBIX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on NBIX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.