NASDAQ: CASY · Specialty Retail
Casey's General Stores (CASY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Casey's General Stores (CASY) at $646.83 a share. The stock last closed at $689.53, which puts the model's fair value 6.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Casey's General Stores, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $668.23 to $646.83 (-3.2%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $689.53 is 6.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 8 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CASY?
The calibrated range for CASY over 63 trading days is $602.73 to $813.47. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CASY's own options imply (45% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $466.88 to $878.65. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) engages in the management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items and freshly prepared food.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $646.83 a share on 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $668.23, and the fair value moved -3.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $588.75 to $798.03. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Calibrated weekly against 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026, such ranges held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Casey's scores 60 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors. Growth quality and Stability each score 88. Trailing revenue growth is 10.2%, against a peer median of 5.3%, and EBITDA margin downside volatility over five years is 0.5 points, against a peer median of 7.7 points. Profitability scores 37, with ROIC of 12.8% against a peer median of 17.5%. The comparable companies include Ulta Beauty, Williams-Sonoma and Best Buy.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CASY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Casey's General Stores's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CASY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.1% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CASY's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CASY
How does CASY score on business quality?
Casey's General Stores's overall quality score is 60 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 37 | 12.8%ROIC | 17.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 58 | 0.84xFCF / net income | 2.37x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 88 | 10.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 1.0%Net buybacks / market value | 5.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 1.72xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.7 pts |
How does CASY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Casey's General Stores in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $649.80 | $683.50 | +5.2% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $258.61 | $243.55 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $99.40 | $127.95 | +28.7% | Undervalued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $36.61 | $32.62 | -10.9% | Fairly valued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $241.26 | $234.83 | -2.7% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $141.07 | $151.65 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | $3,308.97 | $3,270.93 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.17 | $24.86 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CASY, the peer-implied price, is $538.82 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Casey's General Stores at a glance
Casey's General Stores, Inc. engages in the provision of management and operation of convenience stores and gasoline stations. It provides self-service gasoline, a wide selection of grocery items, and an array of freshly prepared food items.
- Market value
- $25.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- -0.19
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CASY was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Casey's General Stores on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CASY was $668.23. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $646.83, a change of -3.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Casey's General Stores's valuation
Is Casey's General Stores stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CASY reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $646.83 a share against a last close of $689.53, a gap of -6.2%.
What is CASY's fair value?
$646.83 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $466.88 to $878.65.
What price range does the model give CASY?
$602.73 to $813.47 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Casey's General Stores report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CASY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +21.8% around the report of 9 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CASY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CASY
The model holds no idea open on CASY today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CASY with their outcomes. A free account is enough.