NASDAQ: ULTA · Specialty Retail
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ulta Beauty (ULTA) at $570.28 a share. The stock last closed at $543.69, which puts the model's fair value 4.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States.
On 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $570.28 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $568.84, so the fair value moved +0.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $501.86 to $625.37, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compared it with Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), and eBay Inc. (EBAY). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 8.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ULTA?
The calibrated range for ULTA over 63 trading days is $501.86 to $625.37. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ULTA's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $445.00 to $714.46. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ULTA score on business quality?
Ulta Beauty's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 24.6%ROIC | 24.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 32 | 0.88xFCF / net income | 1.03x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 9.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 61 | 6.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 61 | 1.22xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.05x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.8 pts |
How does ULTA compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Ulta Beauty in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $617.76 | $583.98 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $232.30 | $209.39 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $87.97 | $113.73 | +29.3% | Undervalued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $31.09 | $32.92 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $221.19 | $214.27 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $136.08 | $126.57 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $106.40 | $116.78 | +9.8% | Fairly valued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.70 | $23.91 | -3.2% | Low evidence grade |
When does ULTA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ulta Beauty's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ULTA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 9.0% over one month.
How ULTA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | -4.7% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | -5.9% |
| 12 Mar 2026 | -17.9% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | +10.5% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | -7.7% |
| 29 May 2025 | +13.1% |
| 13 Mar 2025 | +8.6% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | +7.1% |
Ulta Beauty at a glance
Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States.
- Market value
- $23.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $13.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 0.49
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ulta Beauty on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ULTA was $568.84. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $570.28, a change of +0.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ulta Beauty's valuation
Is Ulta Beauty stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ULTA reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $570.28 a share against a last close of $543.69, a gap of +4.9%.
What is ULTA's fair value?
$570.28 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $445.00 to $714.46.
What price range does the model give ULTA?
$501.86 to $625.37 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Ulta Beauty report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ULTA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.9% around the report of 12 Mar 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ULTA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.