NYSE: BBY · Specialty Retail
Best Buy (BBY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Best Buy (BBY) at $113.73 a share. The stock last closed at $87.97, which puts the model's fair value 29.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Best Buy Co., Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Best Buy Co., Inc. operates as a prominent technology retailer across the United States and Canada. Its business structure is segmented into Domestic and International operations.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $113.73 a share on 29 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The fair value moved -0.6% since the previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $114.47. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $79.83 to $104.24, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score against comparable companies is 71 out of 100. The model compares it with Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Five Below, Inc. (FIVE), DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), and Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA). The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BBY?
The calibrated range for BBY over 63 trading days is $79.83 to $104.24. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that BBY's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $85.43 to $148.74. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BBY score on business quality?
Best Buy's overall quality score is 71 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 70 | 26.6%ROIC | 25.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 1.39xFCF / net income | 0.93x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 24 | 0.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 7.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 72 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 83 | 0.73xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does BBY compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Best Buy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $31.09 | $32.92 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $617.76 | $583.98 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | $543.69 | $570.28 | +4.9% | Fairly valued |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma, Inc. | $232.30 | $209.39 | -9.9% | Fairly valued |
| FIVE Five Below, Inc. | $221.19 | $214.27 | -3.1% | Fairly valued |
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $136.08 | $126.57 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.70 | $23.91 | -3.2% | Low evidence grade |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $515.02 | $540.61 | +5.0% | Fairly valued |
When does BBY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Best Buy's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. BBY's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.9% over one month.
How BBY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | -5.7% |
| 28 May 2026 | +20.8% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | +9.4% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | +7.1% |
| 28 Aug 2025 | -2.4% |
| 29 May 2025 | -7.3% |
| 4 Mar 2025 | -12.9% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | -5.2% |
Best Buy at a glance
Best Buy Co., Inc. operates as a prominent technology retailer across the United States and Canada. Its business structure is segmented into Domestic and International operations.
- Market value
- $19.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $43.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.54
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Best Buy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BBY was $114.47. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $113.73, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Best Buy's valuation
Is Best Buy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, BBY reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $113.73 a share against a last close of $87.97, a gap of +29.3%.
What is BBY's fair value?
$113.73 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $85.43 to $148.74.
What price range does the model give BBY?
$79.83 to $104.24 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Best Buy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BBY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +20.8% around the report of 28 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BBY is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.