NASDAQ: FIVE · Specialty Retail
Five Below (FIVE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Five Below (FIVE) at $234.83 a share. The stock last closed at $241.26, which puts the model's fair value 2.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Five Below, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $221.53 to $234.83 (+6.0%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $241.26 is 2.7% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 2 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 19 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give FIVE?
The calibrated range for FIVE over 63 trading days is $206.74 to $291.65. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that FIVE's own options imply (52% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $174.17 to $311.25. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is a Consumer Cyclical, Specialty Retail company. It operates as a prominent specialty discount retailer primarily serving the United States market.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $234.83 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $221.53, so the fair value moved +6.0%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $218.14 to $300.91. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, which does not say whether the fair value is right.
Five Below scores 77 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Stability is highest at 100, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.7 pts against a peer median of 1.0 pts. Capital discipline is lowest at 41, with net buybacks at 0.4% of market value against a peer median of 3.2%. The comparison set includes DICK'S Sporting Goods, GameStop, Tractor Supply, Murphy USA, Best Buy, Etsy and Casey's General Stores.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does FIVE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Five Below's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. FIVE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.0% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 FIVE moved 6.7% in one session, against the 3.1% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across FIVE's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in FIVE
How does FIVE score on business quality?
Five Below's overall quality score is 77 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 75 | 15.0%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 0.97xFCF / net income | 0.74x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 90 | 22.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 41 | 0.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 63 | 1.45xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.86x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does FIVE compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty retail closest to Five Below in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DKS DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | $141.07 | $151.65 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
| GME GameStop Corp. | $24.17 | $24.86 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $36.61 | $32.62 | -10.9% | Fairly valued |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $514.53 | $616.05 | +19.7% | Undervalued |
| BBY Best Buy Co., Inc. | $99.40 | $127.95 | +28.7% | Undervalued |
| CHWY Chewy, Inc. | $23.00 | $21.82 | -5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ETSY Etsy, Inc. | $91.53 | $96.64 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $689.53 | $646.83 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for FIVE, the peer-implied price, is $214.02 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Five Below at a glance
Five Below, Inc. operates as a prominent specialty discount retailer primarily serving the United States market.
- Market value
- $13.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Specialty Retail
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 0.66
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. FIVE was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Five Below on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for FIVE was $221.53. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $234.83, a change of +6.0%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Five Below's valuation
Is Five Below stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FIVE reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $234.83 a share against a last close of $241.26, a gap of -2.7%.
What is FIVE's fair value?
$234.83 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $174.17 to $311.25.
What price range does the model give FIVE?
$206.74 to $291.65 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Five Below report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FIVE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -12.8% around the report of 3 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FIVE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on FIVE
The model has an idea open on FIVE under Quality Momentum since 19 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on FIVE with their outcomes. A free account is enough.