NASDAQ: CFFN · Regional Banks
Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 30 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Capitol Federal Financial (CFFN) at $8.10 a share. The stock last closed at $8.58, which puts the model's fair value 5.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 30 Sep 2026
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. acts as the parent company for Capitol Federal Savings Bank, offering a comprehensive suite of retail banking services.
Faircurve's model on 30 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $8.10 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $8.02, so the fair value moved +1.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $6.80 to $9.88, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is High.
The model compares Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. with Heritage Financial Corporation (HFWA), Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF), Hanmi Financial Corporation (HAFC), Southside Bancshares, Inc. (SBSI), Preferred Bank (PFBC), and Westamerica Bancorporation (WABC). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -4.3% to +11.7%, with a median size of 3.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 30 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CFFN?
The calibrated range for CFFN over 63 trading days is $6.80 to $9.88. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.46 to $8.74. In 36% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CFFN compare with similar companies?
The companies in regional banks closest to Capitol Federal Financial in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFWA Heritage Financial Corporation | $28.14 | $20.41 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| CPF Central Pacific Financial Corp. | $36.42 | $40.77 | +11.9% | Undervalued |
| TRST TrustCo Bank Corp NY | $55.69 | $45.56 | -18.2% | Low evidence grade |
| HAFC Hanmi Financial Corporation | $31.67 | $38.68 | +22.1% | Undervalued |
| SBSI Southside Bancshares, Inc. | $30.73 | $35.65 | +16.0% | Undervalued |
| PFBC Preferred Bank | $106.48 | $140.79 | +32.2% | Undervalued |
| EGBN Eagle Bancorp, Inc. | $28.38 | $26.77 | -5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| WABC Westamerica Bancorporation | $59.60 | $62.23 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
When does CFFN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Capitol Federal Financial's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How CFFN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +0.9% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -2.5% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | +5.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -4.3% |
| 23 Jul 2025 | +1.6% |
| 23 Apr 2025 | +11.7% |
| 29 Jan 2025 | +2.6% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +9.3% |
Capitol Federal Financial at a glance
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. acts as the parent company for Capitol Federal Savings Bank, offering a comprehensive suite of retail banking services.
- Market value
- $1.1B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Regional Banks
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -43.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- 0.58
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Capitol Federal Financial on the share price against the net assets on the balance sheet, adjusted for the earnings analysts expect (price to book value), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CFFN was $8.02. As of 30 Sep 2026 it is $8.10, a change of +1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Capitol Federal Financial's valuation
Is Capitol Federal Financial stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CFFN reads as Fairly valued as of 30 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $8.10 a share against a last close of $8.58, a gap of -5.6%.
What is CFFN's fair value?
$8.10 a share as of 30 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.46 to $8.74.
What price range does the model give CFFN?
$6.80 to $9.88 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Capitol Federal Financial report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CFFN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.7% around the report of 23 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CFFN is high. For banks, insurers and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, how wide the range of outcomes is, and whether the model's valuation methods agree with each other. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.